ATP - ATP Japan Open
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by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks
Carlos Alcaraz of Spain and Taylor Fritz of the United States will meet again on Tuesday, but this time on the line is the 2025 Kinoshita Japan Open championship in Tokyo, Japan.
Fritz remains a heavy underdog at +350, which pays out a potential profit of $350 for every $100 bet, despite beating Alcaraz in straight sets at the 2025 Laver Cup more than a week ago.
Current Form:
Fritz sealed his spot in the championship match of the 2025 Japan Open with a 6-4, 6-3 win over compatriot Jenson Brooksby. Buoyed by 13 aces and 39 points behind the first serves, Fritz held all his serves and captured two key breakpoint conversions that allowed him to wrap up the match in two sets. Fritz extended his winning streak to five games, including a couple of straight-set victories over Alcaraz 6-3, 6-2 and Alexander Zverev 6-3, 7-6 at the Laver Cup.
Alcaraz pushed his undefeated streak on the ATP Tour to 17 games, not counting his loss to Fritz at the Laver Cup, after pulling off a come-from-behind win over Casper Ruud of Norway 3-6, 6-3. 6-4 in Monday’s semifinals. The reigning US Open champion made the comeback possible by conceding only one service break to Ruud and breaking the Norwegian twice. Alcaraz won 40 points behind the first serves and fired 11 aces in the match. Alcaraz raised his hard-court record to 27-4 and overall record to 66-7 in 2025.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Form
Carlos Alcaraz and Taylor Fritz Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 29, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 28, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 27, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 25, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 21, 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
Sep 20, 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
Sep 29, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 27, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 26, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 25, 2025 - ATP Japan Open
Sep 21, 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
Sep 20, 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
Carlos Alcaraz against Taylor Fritz : Head to Head (H2H)
75 %
25 %
Sep 20, 2025 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
Jul 11, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Sep 22, 2024 - Laver Cup,Singles Matches
Mar 30, 2023 - ATP Miami
Carlos Alcaraz - Taylor Fritz Key Points
- Taylor Fritz defeated Jenson Brooksby 6-4, 6-3 in the semifinal of the 2025 Japan Open.
- Taylor Fritz is 1-3 vs. Carlos Alcaraz head-to-head.
- Carlos Alcaraz defeated Casper Ruud 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals of the 2025 Japan Open.
- Carlos Alcaraz is 27-4 on the hard court in 2025.
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Our Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritz Prediction
Taylor Fritz will enter Tuesday’s championship match with Carlos Alcaraz more confident than he has ever been before.
After pulling off clinical 6-2, 6-3 win over Alcaraz at the Laver Cup, the American believes he can beat the world’s No.1 for the second straight time.
Can Fritz pull it off again?
Hate to say it, but Fritz will be facing a different Alcaraz this time around. The Alcaraz he played at the Laver Cup won’t be the same as the player he will be playing for the Japan Open title on Tuesday.
Alcaraz is 66-7 overall and 27-4 on the hard court in 2025. He has never lost to the same player twice this year.
Alcaraz is also 7-2 against the ATP top-5 this year. Those two losses came against Novak Djokovic in the semifinal of the Australian Open and Jannik Sinner in the final of the 2025 Wimbledon Open.
Meanwhile, Fritz boasts a 3-1 record against the ATP top-5 and an immaculate 3-0 record in championship matches this year. However, Fritz is only 1-11 against the world’s No.1 in his career. His only victory against a top-1 player happened roughly two weeks ago against Alcaraz in a non-ATP sanctioned match at the Laver Cup.
Take Alcaraz to cover -4.5 Games (+150). The Spaniard is going for a statement win on Tuesday, eager to avenge his previous loss to Fritz.
Alcaraz has beaten the American by at least five games in three of their four meetings. The Spaniard clobbered Fritz 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinal of the 2022 Miami Open and swept him again 6-2, 7-5 in the 2024 Laver Cup. Alcaraz also bested Fritz 6-4, 5-7, 6-3. 7-6 in their first Grand Slam faceoff in the semifinal of the 2025 Wimbledon Open.
Our betting prediction for Carlos Alcaraz vs. Taylor Fritz: Carlos Alcaraz -4.5 Games.
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