Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction & Picks - NFL

USA - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
1/26/25 18:30
Buffalo Bills

Prediction:

 

Bills to win and under 48 points

+255
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 by Simon Day | in NFL Picks

A place at Super Bowl 59 is at stake on Sunday night, as the Chiefs host the Bills in one of the most hotly anticipated AFC Championship games of all time. Remarkably, this will be the third postseason meeting between the two teams in the last four seasons. But whilst KC have emerged victorious in all three of those previous encounters, the Bills did have the upper hand when the two teams faced off in Week 11 of the 2024 Regular Season. If Josh Allen and co can reproduce the form that saw them win 30-21 in that game, the Bills may finally be able to get over the hump and reach their first Super Bowl since 1994.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Form

Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills Latest Matches

Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs Latest matches
W W W W L W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Jan 18, 2025 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
23 :  14
Houston Texans

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
38 :  0
Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 25, 2024 - NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers
10 :  29
Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 21, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
27 :  19
Houston Texans

Dec 15, 2024 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
7 :  21
Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 8, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
19 :  17
Los Angeles Chargers
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Jan 18, 2025 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
23 :  14
Houston Texans

Dec 21, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
27 :  19
Houston Texans

Dec 8, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
19 :  17
Los Angeles Chargers

Nov 29, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
19 :  17
Las Vegas Raiders

Nov 10, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
16 :  14
Denver Broncos

Nov 4, 2024 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
30 :  24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
W L W W W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

Denver Broncos
38 :  0
Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 25, 2024 - NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers
10 :  29
Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 15, 2024 - NFL

Cleveland Browns
7 :  21
Kansas City Chiefs

Nov 24, 2024 - NFL

Carolina Panthers
27 :  30
Kansas City Chiefs

Nov 17, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
30 :  21
Kansas City Chiefs

Oct 27, 2024 - NFL

Las Vegas Raiders
20 :  27
Kansas City Chiefs
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo Bills Latest matches
W W W L W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Jan 19, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
27 :  25
Baltimore Ravens

Jan 12, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
31 :  7
Denver Broncos

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
23 :  16
Buffalo Bills

Dec 29, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
40 :  14
New York Jets

Dec 22, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
24 :  21
New England Patriots

Dec 15, 2024 - NFL

Detroit Lions
42 :  48
Buffalo Bills
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Jan 19, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
27 :  25
Baltimore Ravens

Jan 12, 2025 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
31 :  7
Denver Broncos

Dec 29, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
40 :  14
New York Jets

Dec 22, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
24 :  21
New England Patriots

Dec 1, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
35 :  10
San Francisco 49ers

Nov 17, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
30 :  21
Kansas City Chiefs
W W W L W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jan 5, 2025 - NFL

New England Patriots
23 :  16
Buffalo Bills

Dec 15, 2024 - NFL

Detroit Lions
42 :  48
Buffalo Bills

Dec 8, 2024 - NFL

Los Angeles Rams
44 :  42
Buffalo Bills

Nov 10, 2024 - NFL

Indianapolis Colts
20 :  30
Buffalo Bills

Oct 27, 2024 - NFL

Seattle Seahawks
10 :  31
Buffalo Bills

Oct 14, 2024 - NFL

New York Jets
20 :  23
Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs against Buffalo Bills : Head to Head (H2H)

Kansas City Chiefs

25 %

Buffalo Bills

75 %

Nov 17, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
30 :  21
Kansas City Chiefs

Jan 21, 2024 - NFL

Buffalo Bills
24 :  27
Kansas City Chiefs

Dec 10, 2023 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
17 :  20
Buffalo Bills

Oct 16, 2022 - NFL

Kansas City Chiefs
20 :  24
Buffalo Bills

Kansas City Chiefs - Buffalo Bills: Form Analysis

Aside from the Week 11 loss to the Bills, the Chiefs have been in imperious form this season. Their 15-2 Regular Season record was enough to secure the AFC number one seed, and although the Texans caused them a few issues in the Divisional Round, KC thoroughly deserved their nine point victory. Defense has been the key to the Chief's success this season, with the likes of Trent McDuffie, Nick Bolton and Chirs Jones producing career years. And whilst the offense struggled to get going early in the season, QB Patrick Mahomes has started to find his best form in recent weeks, ably supported by TE Travis Kelce, a solid run game and one of the best offensive lines in the league. 

A 12-5 Regular Season record was enough to comfortably secure the Bills their fifth successive AFC East title. They then cruised past the Broncos on Wild Card weekend, before needing a huge defensive effort to thwart the Ravens in the Divisional Round. QB Josh Allen has been the star of the show for Buffalo this season and is the bookies' favorite to win the league's MVP award. Alongside him, RB James Cook weighed in with 19 touchdowns and over 1,000 rushing yards. 

Kansas City Chiefs & Buffalo Bills Squad Analysis

The Chiefs go into Sunday's game with a relatively clean bill of health. Super Bowl 58 hero Mercole Hardman has failed to recover from the injury that has kept him out of the KC lineup since early December, but the likes of Mike Caliendo, Jaylen Watson and Jawaan Taylor have all come through practice unscathed following minor injuries. 

Meanwhile, the Bills have injury doubts over cornerback Christian Benford (concussion) and safety Taylor Rapp (hip), with the latter missing practice entirely on Thursday. The good news for Buffalo is that Dalton Kincaid, Matt Milano and Damar Hamlin are all on track to be fully fit for Sunday's game following minor injuries against the Ravens. 

Kansas City Chiefs - Buffalo Bills Key Points

  1. 3 of Buffalo's last 5 games have produced under 48 points
  2. The Chief's last 7 games have all produced under 48 points
  3. The Bills won 30-21 when the teams met in Week 11 of the 2024 Regular Season
  4. The Bills have won 12 of their last 14 games

Our Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Prediction

After a string of near misses in the playoffs, we think this will finally be the Bills' time to shine in Kansas. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has been the best player in the entire NFL this season, and despite their incredible win-loss record, we think the Chiefs are beatable, even at Arrowhead. The bookies have the Chiefs as two point favorites, but we are backing the Bills to come out on top in a low scoring thriller.  Our prediction for Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills is: Bills to win and under 48 points.

Prediction:

 

Bills to win and under 48 points

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills Picks