Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction & Picks - LaLiga

Spain - LaLiga

Barcelona
5/11/25 10:15
Real Madrid

Prediction:

 

Over 3.5

-124
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 by Erik Gibbs in LaLiga Picks

This Sunday afternoon, all eyes will turn to the Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys as FC Barcelona and Real Madrid square off in what could be a decisive moment in the La Liga title race. With only four points separating the two Spanish giants—Barcelona leading on 79 and Real trailing with 75—the outcome of this El Clásico could ultimately shape the destination of the 2024/25 league crown.

Barcelona enters this high-stakes clash still reeling from their heartbreaking Champions League quarter-final exit against Inter Milan. After pushing the tie into extra time, they were defeated 4-3 in a dramatic contest that left them both physically and emotionally drained.

That defeat has raised questions about their ability to recover quickly for such a critical domestic fixture. Despite being league leaders and enjoying a dominant run of 40 wins in their last 55 games, the fatigue and disappointment of their European elimination may put them at a disadvantage.

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Barcelona vs Real Madrid Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
1
Barcelona
Barcelona
79 34 25 4 5 58
2
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
75 34 23 6 5 36

Barcelona and Real Madrid Latest Matches

Barcelona
Barcelona Latest matches
W W W D W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.83 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.67 Goals scored
2.17 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

May 6, 2025 - Champions League

Inter Milan
4 :  3
Barcelona

May 3, 2025 - LaLiga

Valladolid
1 :  2
Barcelona

Apr 30, 2025 - Champions League

Barcelona
3 :  3
Inter Milan

Apr 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Barcelona
3 :  2
Real Madrid

Apr 22, 2025 - LaLiga

Barcelona
1 :  0
Mallorca

Apr 19, 2025 - LaLiga

Barcelona
4 :  3
Celta Vigo
D W W W W D
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.17 Total goals
67% BTTS
2.67 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

Apr 30, 2025 - Champions League

Barcelona
3 :  3
Inter Milan

Apr 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Barcelona
3 :  2
Real Madrid

Apr 22, 2025 - LaLiga

Barcelona
1 :  0
Mallorca

Apr 19, 2025 - LaLiga

Barcelona
4 :  3
Celta Vigo

Apr 9, 2025 - Champions League

Barcelona
4 :  0
Borussia Dortmund

Apr 5, 2025 - LaLiga

Barcelona
1 :  1
Betis
W W W L W L
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
67% Over 2.5
33% Under 2.5

May 6, 2025 - Champions League

Inter Milan
4 :  3
Barcelona

May 3, 2025 - LaLiga

Valladolid
1 :  2
Barcelona

Apr 15, 2025 - Champions League

Borussia Dortmund
3 :  1
Barcelona

Apr 12, 2025 - LaLiga

Leganés
0 :  1
Barcelona

Apr 2, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Atletico Madrid
0 :  1
Barcelona

Mar 16, 2025 - LaLiga

Atletico Madrid
2 :  4
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Real Madrid Latest matches
W L W W L W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
50% BTTS
1.5 Goals scored
1.17 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

May 4, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Celta Vigo

Apr 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Barcelona
3 :  2
Real Madrid

Apr 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Getafe
0 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 16, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Arsenal

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Alavés
0 :  1
Real Madrid
W D L L W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

4.17 Total goals
83% BTTS
2.17 Goals scored
2 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

May 4, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Celta Vigo

Apr 20, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  0
Athletic Bilbao

Apr 16, 2025 - Champions League

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Arsenal

Apr 5, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
1 :  2
Valencia

Apr 1, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Real Madrid
4 :  4
Real Sociedad

Mar 29, 2025 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Leganés
L W L W W L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

3/6 (50%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
1 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Apr 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Barcelona
3 :  2
Real Madrid

Apr 23, 2025 - LaLiga

Getafe
0 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 13, 2025 - LaLiga

Alavés
0 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 8, 2025 - Champions League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Real Madrid

Mar 15, 2025 - LaLiga

Villarreal
1 :  2
Real Madrid

Mar 12, 2025 - Champions League

Atletico Madrid
1 :  0
Real Madrid

Barcelona against Real Madrid : Head to Head (H2H)

Barcelona

67 %

Draw

0 %

Real Madrid

33 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

4.83
Total goals
83%
BTTS
2.83
Goals scored (Team 1)
2
Goals scored (Team 2)
100%
Over 2.5
0%
Under 2.5

Apr 26, 2025 - Copa del Rey

Barcelona
3 :  2
Real Madrid

Jan 12, 2025 - Super Cup

Real Madrid
2 :  5
Barcelona

Oct 26, 2024 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
0 :  4
Barcelona

Aug 3, 2024 - Clubs Friendlies

Barcelona
2 :  1
Real Madrid

Apr 21, 2024 - LaLiga

Real Madrid
3 :  2
Barcelona

Jan 14, 2024 - Super Cup

Real Madrid
4 :  1
Barcelona

Barcelona - Real Madrid: Form Analysis

Real Madrid has had a full week to prepare, following a narrow but vital 3-2 win over Celta Vigo last weekend. Although they secured the points, their defensive vulnerabilities were once again exposed—conceding twice and nearly allowing Celta to level the match late. Still, the win extended their unbeaten run in La Liga to four matches, and they now have a golden opportunity to close the gap at the top to just one point.

The stakes are massive for Carlo Ancelotti’s side. A loss would likely end their title hopes, while a win would breathe new life into their campaign. However, Los Blancos are facing a psychological hurdle.

They’ve been outplayed by Barcelona in all three of their previous meetings this season—a 0-4 defeat in La Liga, a 2-5 loss in the Super Cup, and a 3-2 setback in the Copa del Rey final. Even a preseason friendly went Barcelona’s way, 2-1. That run of results, combined with this likely being Ancelotti’s final El Clásico, adds even more urgency to Real Madrid’s mission.

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Real Madrid v Barcelona last Lineups

Barcelona

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

25
W. Szczesny
24
E. Garcia
2
P. Cubarsi
5
I. Martinez
35
G. Martin
21
F. De Jong
8
Pedri
19
L. Yamal
20
D. Olmo
11
Raphinha
7
F. Torres
7
V. Junior
9
K. Mbappe
5
J. Bellingham
19
D. Ceballos
8
F. Valverde
15
A. Guler
20
F. Garcia
35
R. Asencio
14
A. Tchouameni
17
L. Vazquez
1
T. Courtois

Formation : 4 - 4 - 2

Real Madrid

Missing players

Barcelona
Barcelona
Defender

A. Balde

J. Kounde

Midfielder

M. Bernal

M. Casado

Real Madrid
Real Madrid
Defender

E. Militao

D. Carvajal

F. Mendy

D. Alaba

A. Rudiger

Midfielder

E. Camavinga

Forward

Rodrygo

Barcelona & Real Madrid Squad Analysis

Following their exhausting and dramatic Champions League exit at the hands of Inter Milan, Barcelona manager Hansi Flick is likely to shake up his starting lineup for this clash. Gavi and Robert Lewandowski, both of whom came off the bench in midweek, are strong candidates to start—particularly with Lewandowski recently returning from injury and pushing for more minutes.

Barcelona will be without several squad members due to injury, including Marc Bernal, Marc Casadó, Jules Koundé, and Pablo Torre, all of whom are unavailable for selection this weekend.

Real Madrid are facing their own injury concerns, especially in defense. Ferland Mendy remains sidelined and won’t be ready in time to feature on Sunday. Additionally, defenders Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, Antonio Rüdiger, and David Alaba are all dealing with injuries and are unlikely to play a part.

However, there is positive news for the visitors: Rodrygo, who missed the Celta Vigo match due to illness, is expected to recover and be available for selection against Barcelona.

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Barcelona
CD Huachipato Real Madrid
Top Goalscorer
Poland R. Lewandowski (36 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
France K. Mbappe (31 Goals)
Best assists
Spain L. Yamal (15 Assists)
Brazil Raphinha (15 Assists)
Best assists
England J. Bellingham (10 Assists)

Barcelona and Real Madrid Stats in LaLiga

Barcelona
Barcelona
Real Madrid
Real Madrid
74%
Victories
68%
12%
Draw
18%
15%
Defeats
15%
3.65
Total goals per match
3
2.68
Goals scored per match
2.03
0.97
Goals conceded per match
0.97
71%
Over 2.5
59%
29%
Under 2.5
41%
62%
BTTS
56%
32%
No goals conceded
38%

Barcelona - Real Madrid Key Points

  1. Barcelona haven't lost a game in their last 16 home games across all competitions
  2. Barcelona are 4-0 in their last 4 LaLiga games
  3. Barcelona have scored 2+ goals in their last 4 games across all competitions
  4. Real Madrid are 4-0 in their last 4 LaLiga games
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Our Barcelona vs Real Madrid Prediction

From a tactical standpoint, Barcelona has been efficient in attack, scoring two or more goals in eight of their last ten home games. Meanwhile, Real Madrid matches have frequently delivered high-scoring affairs, with over 2.5 goals in 70% of their last ten. Their last ten El Clásico encounters—including two friendlies—have all featured at least three goals, making another goal-laden thriller highly likely.

Real Madrid will need to be bold and proactive, knowing that a draw benefits Barcelona more than them. Expect the visitors to press high and attack with intent, which could create space for Barça to exploit on the counter. If the Catalan side can recover mentally and physically, they’ll pose a serious threat, especially with home support on their side.

Ultimately, this match is not just about points—it's about pride, legacy, and possibly the fate of the La Liga title. With Barcelona aiming to hold firm and Real Madrid fighting for survival, this El Clásico is set up to be one of the most dramatic in recent years. Our prediction for Barcelona vs. Real Madrid: Barcelona to win.

Prediction:

 

Over 3.5

-124
$200 offered for betting!

Barcelona vs Real Madrid - Other Interesting Picks

Mbappe to score a goal

Odds +130
Mbappe will have another chance to shine in this match and will find a way to hit the back of the net before time expires.
$200 offered for betting!

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Barcelona vs Real Madrid Picks
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