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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The Philadelphia Phillies and Baltimore Orioles meet today in a clash of teams with differing recent fortunes. The Phillies (62-48) are fighting near the top of the NL East, though they’ve hit a bit of turbulence, dropping four of their last six games. They’re coming off a 7-5 defeat to Detroit and sit just half a game behind the division leader. Even so, Philadelphia’s lineup has generally been potent and their pitching solid this season.
In contrast, the Orioles (51-60) have struggled in the AL East, where they’re fifth and a hefty 13.5 games out of first place. Baltimore did snap a brief losing skid with a 4-3 win over the Cubs recently, providing a morale boost.
However, injuries have hampered the O’s – a host of players are sidelined, including slugger Ryan Mountcastle and catcher Gary Sánchez, weakening both their lineup and bullpen depth. The Phillies have a shorter injured list (notably third baseman Alec Bohm is out), so they remain closer to full strength for this series opener.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
4
|
0.575 | 113 | 65 | 48 |
|
24
|
0.447 | 114 | 51 | 63 |
Baltimore Orioles and Philadelphia Phillies Latest Matches
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5/6 (83%)
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2/6 (33%)
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4/6 (67%)
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Baltimore Orioles against Philadelphia Phillies : Head to Head (H2H)
33 %
67 %
Mar 16, 2025 - MLB Spring Training
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Baltimore Orioles - Philadelphia Phillies Key Points
- The Phillies are 3-2 vs. the O's in their last 5 games
- The Phillies are 54-57 ATS this season
- The Over is 48-58-5 for the Phillies this season
- The Over is 48-60-4 for the O's this season
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Our Baltimore Orioles vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction
On the mound, Baltimore will start left-hander Cade Povich, who is returning from a lengthy injury layoff (his first start since June 10). Rust could be a factor for Povich, who was inconsistent before the injury, posting a 5.15 ERA. Philadelphia counters with lefty Jesús Luzardo, who closed July in excellent form – he tossed seven scoreless innings with just two hits allowed in his last outing. Luzardo (9-5, 4.31 ERA) has swing-and-miss stuff and will look to keep Baltimore’s bats quiet.
Offensively, the Phillies’ charge is led by Kyle Schwarber, who has been a home run machine with 37 homers. Schwarber’s power and run production (87 RBIs) make him a constant threat to Baltimore’s pitchers. Alongside him, former MVP Bryce Harper is heating up; he may have only 16 homers so far, but Harper’s presence and clutch hitting add star power to Philly’s lineup.
For the Orioles, much of the offense comes from their young guns. Gunnar Henderson has emerged as a key hitter, leading the team in RBIs and providing pop (13 home runs). He and rising rookie Jackson Holliday (a team-high 14 homers) will need to spark Baltimore’s run-scoring. The Orioles’ offense has been patchy of late, so a big game from Henderson or Holliday could keep them competitive.
Ultimately, the Phillies appear to have the edge at home – their lineup is deeper and their starter is in stronger form. Unless Baltimore’s pitching overachieves and their young hitters deliver something special, Philadelphia should control this matchup. Our prediction for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles: Phillies to win.
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