Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction & Picks - Champions League
Europe - Champions League
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by Bradley Gibbs | in Champions League Picks
Not for the first time in recent years, there’s English and Spanish presence in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. On Wednesday evening, Atletico Madrid and Arsenal will begin their duel for a place in the final of the most prestigious club competition on planet earth. In front of their own fans, the men from Madrid will be hoping to build on what was their first win in five games at the weekend. Diego Simeone’s men can make life very tough for their opponents at Metropolitano Stadium, but can they beat an Arsenal team that has only failed to win one out of six away games in the UCL this season?
For the Gunners, it’s all about grinding out a result and getting back to North London in a respectable position, as they did when edging out Sporting Lisbon during the previous round. From a betting point of view, it could pay to go down the low-scoring route, with both teams likely to show a clear preference for defensive solidity in what could very easily be a tense, cat-and-mouse affair, though if you're looking for a little more value, consider taking Atletico's talismanic Antoine Griezmann to register a shot on target.
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Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Form
Atletico Madrid and Arsenal Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 25, 2026 - LaLiga
Apr 22, 2026 - LaLiga
Apr 18, 2026 - Copa del Rey
Apr 14, 2026 - Champions League
Apr 11, 2026 - LaLiga
Apr 8, 2026 - Champions League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 25, 2026 - LaLiga
Apr 18, 2026 - Copa del Rey
Apr 14, 2026 - Champions League
Apr 4, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 14, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 10, 2026 - Champions League
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
5/6 (83%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 22, 2026 - LaLiga
Apr 11, 2026 - LaLiga
Apr 8, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 22, 2026 - LaLiga
Mar 18, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 3, 2026 - Copa del Rey
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
3/6 (50%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 25, 2026 - Premier League
Apr 19, 2026 - Premier League
Apr 15, 2026 - Champions League
Apr 11, 2026 - Premier League
Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League
Apr 4, 2026 - FA Cup
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 25, 2026 - Premier League
Apr 15, 2026 - Champions League
Apr 11, 2026 - Premier League
Mar 22, 2026 - Carabao Cup
Mar 17, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 14, 2026 - Premier League
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Apr 19, 2026 - Premier League
Apr 7, 2026 - Champions League
Apr 4, 2026 - FA Cup
Mar 11, 2026 - Champions League
Mar 7, 2026 - FA Cup
Mar 4, 2026 - Premier League
Atletico Madrid against Arsenal : Head to Head (H2H)
25 %
50 %
25 %
Average stats (last H2H results)
Oct 21, 2025 - Champions League
Jul 26, 2018 - International Champions Cup
May 3, 2018 - Europa League
Apr 26, 2018 - Europa League
Atletico Madrid - Arsenal: Form Analysis
Given that they’re UCL semi-finalists, the hosts have not done well of late, not at all. They just about got the job done against Bilbao on home soil at the weekend, winning by three goals to two, but they were winless in four prior to that, losing three of those four, while they’ve won only one of their last four at home in regulation time. During the last round of UCL games, the hosts lost at home to Barcelona, going down by two goals to one.
Fortunately, their weekend-win against the Magpies will have restored some confidence ahead of this huge game.
It would be fair to say that the visitors have also struggled a little of late. Mikel Arteta’s men, like Wednesday’s opponents, did recover to win at the weekend, defeating Newcastle in sturdy fashion, though they suffered a damaging defeat to Man City before that, losing also to Bournemouth, while they were recently dumped out of the FA Cup by second-tier Southampton. Fortunately, their weekend-win against the Magpies will have restored some confidence ahead of this huge game.
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Atletico Madrid against Arsenal Lineups: Starting 11
Formation : 4 - 4 - 2
Formation : 4 - 3 - 3
Substitutes
S. Esquivel Gamez
J. Musso
DefenderC. Lenglet
N. Molina
R. Le Normand
J. Bonar
MidfielderO. Vargas
R. Martinez Moya
J. Diaz
A. Baena
T. Almada
A. Sorloth
T. Setford
K. Arrizabalaga
DefenderC. Mosquera
M. Salmon
R. Calafiori
MidfielderE. Eze
M. Dowman
M. Lewis-Skelly
C. Norgaard
ForwardG. Jesus
B. Saka
L. Trossard
Missing players
J. Gimenez
MidfielderN. Gonzalez
P. Barrios
K. Hein
DefenderJ. Timber
MidfielderM. Merino
ForwardK. Havertz
Atletico Madrid & Arsenal Squad Analysis
Diego Simeone will not be able to call upon the services of Jose Maria Gimene, whose presence in massive UCL games like this would certainly be helpful. The Uruguayan defender has been out since the start of the month. David Hancko also continues on the sidelines, while Ademola Lookman is not expected to feature following his recent knock against Real Sociedad in the Copa del Rey.
Eberechi Eze could also miss out, which hampers Arsenal’s ability to create chances in the final third. Kai Havertz could also be missing.
Arsenal will be without Mikel Merino, who continues to recover from a foot issue, while Jurrien Timber is another absentee for the Gunners. The Dutchman has been absent since picking up an injury in the EPL back in March. Eberechi Eze could also miss out, which hampers Arsenal’s ability to create chances in the final third. Kai Havertz could also be missing.
Most goals and assists
Atletico Madrid
Arsenal
J. Alvarez
(10 Goals)
G. Martinelli
(6 Goals)
J. Alvarez
(4 Assists)
, 
A. Lookman
(4 Assists)
L. Trossard
(5 Assists)
Atletico Madrid - Arsenal Key Points
- In the UEFA Champions League this season, Antoine Griezmann has registered an average of 1.14 shots on target per 90 minutes.
- Antoine Griezmann also averages 2.28 shots per 90 minutes in the UCL this season.
- In his most recent home match for Atletico, Antoine Griezmann registered a shot on target.
- Antoine Griezmann has now registered a shot on target in four of his last five home games.
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Our Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction
Both teams have some big-game players, but nobody is quite as important or quite as adept at turning up in the biggest of games as Antoine Griezmann, who knows all about being at his best on nights like these. The French forward may not be quite as active as a scorer of goals as he once was, but on home soil, he's been very accurate with his shots of late, registering five shots on target in his last five appearances at Metropolitano Stadium.
Very capable of shooting from range, against what is expected to be quite a deep-lying Arsenal team, Griezmann appears to have a stronger chance of hitting the target at least once than the early odds would have us believe. If you want value for money, take odds of -120.
Our Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal Pick: Antoine Griezmann 1+ Shots on Target.
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Atletico Madrid vs Arsenal match : Frequently asked questions
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
