Aryna Sabalenka vs Marketa Vondrousova Prediction & Picks - WTA US Open

Prediction published on 9/2/25, 3:46 PM  by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks

Marketa Vondrousova has beaten Aryna Sabalenka 4 out of 9 times, including two of their last 3.

Will the Vondrousova, a +220 underdog, pull off a massive upset against the betting favorite and defending US Open champion in Tuesday’s quarterfinals?

Current Form:

Vondrousova barged into the quarterfinals of the 2025 US Open with a gritty 6-4 5-7 6-2 win over Elena Rybakina of Kazakhstan. Vondrousova, who fired 13 aces and collected 45 points off the first ball, delivered at the clutch, scoring the most important points to outgun Rybakina in the deciding set. Sunday’s result also marked the third win over a seeded opponent in the tournament for Vondrousova, who had also eliminated No.32 seed McCartney Kessler 7-6(7) 6-2 in the second round and No.7 seed Jasmine Paolini 7-6(4) 6-1 in the third round.

Sabalenka flexed her might after hacking out a dominant 6-1, 6-4 win over Cristina Bucsa of Spain. The Belarusian won 100 percent of her serves by capturing 86 percent of her first serves and adding 11 more points on her second ball. She also created 9 breakpoint opportunities, converting 3 behind 29 return points. Sabalenka is 30-5 on the hard court in 2025.