Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction & Picks - WTA US Open
WTA - WTA US Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka clash again on Thursday, with the winner advancing to the final of the 2026 US Open.
Over 2.5 sets (+120) is gaining a lot of steam in the betting market as the last four matches between these players went the distance.
Current Form:
Jessica Pegula punched her ticket to the semifinals of the 2026 US Open after a gritty win over Emma Navarro, 3-6, 6-4, 6-3. After a listless first set, Pegula recalibrated and got the better exchanges with Navarro in the final two sets. The world No.3 won 53 points off Navarro’s first serves and broke five times, including twice in the third set to seal the deal. Pegula has beaten Elena Gabriela Ruse, Sofia Kenin and Sorana Cirstea in straight sets. The only other time Pegula dropped a set was against Leylah Fernandez (1-6, 6-4, 6-3) in the third round.
Aryna Sabalenka surrendered a set for the first time at the 2026 US Open, but that did not stop her from edging Linda Noskova 7-6, 3-6, 7-6. Sabalenka showed nerves of steel to outlast the Czech, especially in the third-set tiebreak, advancing to the semifinal round of the US Open for the 6th time. The Belarusian is now 32-3 on hard courts in 2026.
The Matchup: Sabalenka leads the head-to-head series, 9-4, but Pegula won 2 of their last 3 meetings.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula Latest Matches
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 8, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 6, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 4, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 2, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 31, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 19, 2026 - WTA Cincinnati Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 8, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 6, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 4, 2026 - WTA US Open
Sep 2, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 30, 2026 - WTA US Open
Aug 23, 2026 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aryna Sabalenka against Jessica Pegula : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Jun 20, 2026 - WTA Berlin Open
Nov 4, 2025 - WTA Doha
Oct 11, 2025 - WTA Wuhan Open
Sep 4, 2025 - WTA US Open
Mar 29, 2025 - WTA Miami
Sep 7, 2024 - WTA US Open
Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula Key Points
- Aryna Sabalenka is 32-3 on hard courts in 2026.
- Aryna Sabalenka aims for three consecutive US Open titles.
- Jessica Pegula is a former US Open finalist.
- Jessica Pegula is 34-7 on hard courts in 2026.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Key Stats: Each of the last four meetings between Sabalenka and Pegula has gone to three sets.
Sabalenka is winning 71 percent of her first serves and converting 47.8 percent of break chances at the 2026 US Open.
Pegula is winning 68.4 percent of her first serves and converting 40.4 percent of break points at the 2026 US Open.
What to Expect: Sabalenka edges Pegula in another thrilling match. Pegula has taken down Sabalenka in 2 of their last 3 meetings, but this is the US Open, where the Belarusian has been unbeatable over the past three years.
Pegula will still give Sabalenka a competitive match and push her to three sets for the fifth straight time, but the two-time defending champion just knows how to hack out a win in tight matches in this tournament.
Fearless Forecast: Aryna Sabalenka wins 5-7, 7-5, 7-6
Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Over 2.5 Sets
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
