Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction & Picks - WTA US Open

WTA - WTA US Open

WTA 1 Belarus
Aryna Sabalenka
9/4/25 19:15
WTA 5 USA
Jessica Pegula

Prediction:

 

Jessica Pegula +1.5 Sets

-135
$300+ offered for betting!

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 by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks

Jessica Pegula of the United States will try to exorcise her old demons as she guns for an upset win over world’s No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus in Thursday’s quarterfinals at the 2025 US Open.

Pegula, a +275 underdog, has yet to drop a set at the 2025 US Open.

Also, you can pocket a profit of $100 for every $135 bet on DraftKings if Pegula captures at least one set against Sabalenka.

Current Form:

Pegula reached the semifinal of the 2025 US Open without losing a single set, leaning on her vast experience and an increasingly dangerous offensive game to sweep her first five opponents in this competition. Pegula defeated Mayar Sherif 6-0 6-4, Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-3, Victoria Azarenka 6-1 7-5, Ann Li 6-1 6-2, and Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 6-3 to earn only her second Grand Slam semis stint.

Sabalenka, the betting favorite and defending US Open champion, barged into the US Open semis without breaking a sweat after her scheduled opponent, Marketa Vondrousova, decided to withdraw hours before their match. As a result, Sabalenka secured a semifinal appearance at the US Open for the fifth consecutive year.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Form

Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula Latest Matches

Aryna Sabalenka Latest matches
W L W W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Sep 2, 2025 - WTA US Open

Aryna Sabalenka
withdraw
Marketa Vondrousova

Aug 31, 2025 - WTA US Open

Aryna Sabalenka
2 :  0
Cristina Bucsa

Aug 29, 2025 - WTA US Open

Aryna Sabalenka
2 :  0
Leylah Annie Fernandez

Aug 27, 2025 - WTA US Open

Aryna Sabalenka
2 :  0
Polina Kudermetova

Aug 24, 2025 - WTA US Open

Aryna Sabalenka
2 :  0
Rebeka Masarova

Aug 15, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open

Aryna Sabalenka
0 :  2
Elena Rybakina
Jessica Pegula Latest matches
L W W W W W
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Sep 2, 2025 - WTA US Open

Jessica Pegula
2 :  0
Barbora Krejcikova

Aug 31, 2025 - WTA US Open

Jessica Pegula
2 :  0
Ann Li

Aug 29, 2025 - WTA US Open

Jessica Pegula
2 :  0
Victoria Azarenka

Aug 27, 2025 - WTA US Open

Jessica Pegula
2 :  0
Anna Blinkova

Aug 24, 2025 - WTA US Open

Jessica Pegula
2 :  0
Maiar Sherif Ahmed Abdelaziz

Aug 12, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open

Magda Linette
2 :  1
Jessica Pegula

Aryna Sabalenka against Jessica Pegula : Head to Head (H2H)

Aryna Sabalenka

80 %

Jessica Pegula

20 %

Mar 29, 2025 - WTA Miami

Aryna Sabalenka
2 :  0
Jessica Pegula

Sep 7, 2024 - WTA US Open

Jessica Pegula
0 :  2
Aryna Sabalenka

Aug 19, 2024 - WTA Cincinnati Open

Aryna Sabalenka
2 :  0
Jessica Pegula

Oct 31, 2023 - WTA Doha

Aryna Sabalenka
0 :  2
Jessica Pegula

Nov 4, 2022 - WTA Doha

Jessica Pegula
0 :  2
Aryna Sabalenka
Compare Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula with our comparison tool.

Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula Key Points

  1. Jessica Pegula defeated Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 6-3 in the quarterfinal round of the 2025 US Open.
  2. Jessica Pegula is 2-7 vs. Aryna Sabalenka in their head-to-head series.
  3. Aryna Sabalenka defeated Marketa Vondrousova via walkover.
  4. Aryna Sabalenka is 30-5 on the hard court this year.

Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction

Buoyed by her dominant form in this tournament, Jessica Pegula appears poised to win at least a set against Aryna Sabalenka in their semifinal match. Pegula last defeated the world’s No.1 6-4 6-3 at the 2023 WTA Finals. After that victory, she has lost her last three faceoffs against Sabalenka, including a 5-7, 5-7 loss at the 2024 US Open.

Although Sabalenka is still the overwhelming favorite to win and advance because of her superiority in their head-to-head series (7-2 vs. Pegula), a growing number of experts are starting to believe that Pegula might have a strong chance of beating Sabalenka at this year’s US Open after the American breezed through the first five rounds with relative ease.

But again, Sabalenka is a tenacious hard-court player, and it will most probably require a superhuman effort from Pegula to pull off such a massive upset.

Pegula certainly possesses the right tools and experience to go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka in a high-stakes match. I also wouldn’t blame others if they go as far as picking Pegula to win straight up at +275. However, taking into account Sabalenka’s track record at the US Open, plus her head-to-head dominance against Pegula, it appears the most ideal pick available is Pegula +1.5 Sets.

Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Jessica Pegula +1.5 Sets.

Prediction:

 

Jessica Pegula +1.5 Sets

-135
$300+ offered for betting!

All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Picks