WTA - WTA US Open
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by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks
Jessica Pegula of the United States will try to exorcise her old demons as she guns for an upset win over world’s No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka of Belarus in Thursday’s quarterfinals at the 2025 US Open.
Pegula, a +275 underdog, has yet to drop a set at the 2025 US Open.
Also, you can pocket a profit of $100 for every $135 bet on DraftKings if Pegula captures at least one set against Sabalenka.
Current Form:
Pegula reached the semifinal of the 2025 US Open without losing a single set, leaning on her vast experience and an increasingly dangerous offensive game to sweep her first five opponents in this competition. Pegula defeated Mayar Sherif 6-0 6-4, Anna Blinkova 6-1 6-3, Victoria Azarenka 6-1 7-5, Ann Li 6-1 6-2, and Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 6-3 to earn only her second Grand Slam semis stint.
Sabalenka, the betting favorite and defending US Open champion, barged into the US Open semis without breaking a sweat after her scheduled opponent, Marketa Vondrousova, decided to withdraw hours before their match. As a result, Sabalenka secured a semifinal appearance at the US Open for the fifth consecutive year.
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Form
Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Sep 2, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 31, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 29, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 27, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 24, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 15, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Sep 2, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 31, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 29, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 27, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 24, 2025 - WTA US Open
Aug 12, 2025 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Aryna Sabalenka against Jessica Pegula : Head to Head (H2H)
80 %
20 %
Mar 29, 2025 - WTA Miami
Sep 7, 2024 - WTA US Open
Aug 19, 2024 - WTA Cincinnati Open
Oct 31, 2023 - WTA Doha
Nov 4, 2022 - WTA Doha
Aryna Sabalenka - Jessica Pegula Key Points
- Jessica Pegula defeated Barbora Krejcikova 6-3 6-3 in the quarterfinal round of the 2025 US Open.
- Jessica Pegula is 2-7 vs. Aryna Sabalenka in their head-to-head series.
- Aryna Sabalenka defeated Marketa Vondrousova via walkover.
- Aryna Sabalenka is 30-5 on the hard court this year.
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Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Prediction
Buoyed by her dominant form in this tournament, Jessica Pegula appears poised to win at least a set against Aryna Sabalenka in their semifinal match. Pegula last defeated the world’s No.1 6-4 6-3 at the 2023 WTA Finals. After that victory, she has lost her last three faceoffs against Sabalenka, including a 5-7, 5-7 loss at the 2024 US Open.
Although Sabalenka is still the overwhelming favorite to win and advance because of her superiority in their head-to-head series (7-2 vs. Pegula), a growing number of experts are starting to believe that Pegula might have a strong chance of beating Sabalenka at this year’s US Open after the American breezed through the first five rounds with relative ease.
But again, Sabalenka is a tenacious hard-court player, and it will most probably require a superhuman effort from Pegula to pull off such a massive upset.
Pegula certainly possesses the right tools and experience to go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka in a high-stakes match. I also wouldn’t blame others if they go as far as picking Pegula to win straight up at +275. However, taking into account Sabalenka’s track record at the US Open, plus her head-to-head dominance against Pegula, it appears the most ideal pick available is Pegula +1.5 Sets.
Our betting prediction for Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula: Jessica Pegula +1.5 Sets.
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