Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction & Picks - Premier League

England - Premier League

Arsenal
10/10/26 07:30
Leeds

Prediction:

 

Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

+105
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 by Bradley Gibbs | in Premier League Picks

After a rather lengthy international break, domestic action in the top European leagues returns this weekend. On Saturday, there's EPL action in North London, where Arsenal and Leeds will face off. The reigning champions suffered a heavy defeat before the pause in league action, so they'll be looking to atone for that. In contrast, the visitors delivered another sturdy effort before their time off. 

Given what happened before the international break, the Gunners will be primarily focused on delivering a much cleaner performance, so it would be far from a surprise if they grind this one out in sturdy and relatively low-scoring fashion. It's also worth mentioning the fact that Daniel Farke's visitors are far from easy to dominate, so if the hosts do come out on top, which their home record suggests that they will, don't expect them to run away with it. 

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Arsenal vs Leeds Form

Table

Teams Pts P W D L GD
2 Arsenal
12 5 4 0 1 +4
5 Leeds
9 5 2 3 0 +4

Arsenal and Leeds Latest Matches

Arsenal
Arsenal Latest matches
W W W W W L
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.67 Total goals
33% BTTS
1.67 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Sep 19, 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
3 :  0
Arsenal

Sep 15, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Ipswich Town
2 :  4
Arsenal

Sep 12, 2026 - Premier League

Sunderland
0 :  2
Arsenal

Sep 9, 2026 - Champions League

Napoli
0 :  1
Arsenal

Sep 6, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

Aug 31, 2026 - Premier League

Aston Villa
0 :  1
Arsenal
L L D W W W
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

1/6 (17%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.33 Goals conceded
83% Over 2.5
17% Under 2.5

Sep 6, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Chelsea

Aug 21, 2026 - Premier League

Arsenal
3 :  0
Coventry City

Aug 16, 2026 - Community Shield

Arsenal
3 :  0
Manchester City

Aug 12, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
1 :  1
Como 1907

Aug 9, 2026 - Emirates Cup

Arsenal
2 :  3
Borussia Dortmund

Aug 5, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Arsenal
1 :  3
Betis
W W W W W L
Victories

5/6 (83%)

Draw

0/6 (0%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3 Total goals
33% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1 Goals conceded
50% Over 2.5
50% Under 2.5

Sep 19, 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
3 :  0
Arsenal

Sep 15, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Ipswich Town
2 :  4
Arsenal

Sep 12, 2026 - Premier League

Sunderland
0 :  2
Arsenal

Sep 9, 2026 - Champions League

Napoli
0 :  1
Arsenal

Aug 31, 2026 - Premier League

Aston Villa
0 :  1
Arsenal

Aug 1, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Girona
1 :  4
Arsenal
Leeds
Leeds Latest matches
W D D L W D
Victories

2/6 (33%)

Draw

3/6 (50%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.33 Total goals
67% BTTS
1.83 Goals scored
1.5 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Sep 20, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  0
Crystal Palace

Sep 14, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
4 :  1
Newcastle

Sep 9, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Chelsea
6 :  3
Leeds

Sep 5, 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
1 :  1
Leeds

Aug 30, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  1
Brentford

Aug 25, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Nottingham Forest
0 :  2
Leeds
W W W D W D
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

2.33 Total goals
33% BTTS
2 Goals scored
0.33 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Sep 20, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  0
Crystal Palace

Sep 14, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
4 :  1
Newcastle

Aug 30, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  1
Brentford

Aug 15, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
4 :  0
Augsburg

Aug 8, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
2 :  0
Leipzig

Jul 30, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Leeds
1 :  0
Sunderland
W D W W D L
Victories

3/6 (50%)

Draw

2/6 (33%)

Defeats

1/6 (17%)

Average stats (Last 6 matchs)

3.67 Total goals
67% BTTS
2 Goals scored
1.67 Goals conceded
33% Over 2.5
67% Under 2.5

Sep 9, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Chelsea
6 :  3
Leeds

Sep 5, 2026 - Premier League

Brighton
1 :  1
Leeds

Aug 25, 2026 - Carabao Cup

Nottingham Forest
0 :  2
Leeds

Aug 22, 2026 - Premier League

Nottingham Forest
0 :  1
Leeds

Aug 12, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Manchester United
1 :  1
Leeds

Aug 2, 2026 - Clubs Friendlies

Liverpool
2 :  4
Leeds

Arsenal against Leeds : Head to Head (H2H)

Arsenal

100 %

Draw

0 %

Leeds

0 %

Average stats (last H2H results)

3.83
Total goals
50%
BTTS
3.33
Goals scored
0.5
Goals conceded
83.33%
Over 2.5
16.67%
Under 2.5

Jan 31, 2026 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  4
Arsenal

Aug 23, 2025 - Premier League

Arsenal
5 :  0
Leeds

Apr 1, 2023 - Premier League

Arsenal
4 :  1
Leeds

Oct 16, 2022 - Premier League

Leeds
0 :  1
Arsenal

May 8, 2022 - Premier League

Arsenal
2 :  1
Leeds

Dec 18, 2021 - Premier League

Leeds
1 :  4
Arsenal
Arsenal vs Leeds Picks

Leeds v Arsenal last Lineups

Arsenal

Formation : 4 - 2 - 3 - 1

1
D. Raya
12
J. Timber
15
E. Konsa
6
G. Magalhaes
33
R. Calafiori
41
D. Rice
39
B. Guimaraes
7
B. Saka
8
M. Odegaard
17
C. Tzolis
29
K. Havertz
19
N. Okafor
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
3
G. Gudmundsson
22
A. Tanaka
4
E. Ampadu
18
A. Stach
2
J. Bogle
24
J. Justin
5
T. Muharemovic
30
N. Elvedi
1
J. Trafford

Formation : 3 - 5 - 2

Leeds

Substitutes

Arsenal
Arsenal
Goalkeeper

K. Arrizabalaga

Defender

P. Hincapie

Midfielder

M. Lewis-Skelly

M. Dowman

M. Zubimendi

M. Merino

E. Eze

Forward

N. Madueke

V. Gyokeres

Leeds
Leeds
Goalkeeper

M. Zetterer

Defender

J. Bijol

M. Bard

Midfielder

I. Gruev

S. Longstaff

Forward

D. James

L. Nmecha

B. Aaronson

J. Bahoya

Missing players

Arsenal
Arsenal
Defender

E. Konsa

B. White

W. Saliba

P. Hincapie

C. Mosquera

Midfielder

D. Rice

M. Dowman

Forward

K. Havertz

C. Tzolis

Leeds
Leeds
Defender

J. Rodon

Forward

H. Wilson

J. Bahoya

Mateo Joseph

Most goals and assists

CD Huachipato Arsenal
CD Huachipato Leeds
Top Goalscorer
England B. Saka (3 Goals)
Top Goalscorer
England D. Calvert-Lewin (2 Goals) ,  England J. Bogle (2 Goals)
Best assists
Italy R. Calafiori (2 Assists) , 
England D. Rice (2 Assists)
Best assists
Germany L. Nmecha (1 Assists) , 
Japan A. Tanaka (1 Assists) , 
England D. Calvert-Lewin (1 Assists) , 
Bosnia and Herzegovina T. Muharemovic (1 Assists)

Arsenal and Leeds Stats in Premier League

Arsenal
Arsenal
Leeds
Leeds
80%
Wins
40%
20%
Losses
0%
0%
Draws
60%
2.4
Average goals per match
2
1.6
Goals scored per match
1.4
0.8
Goals conceded per match
0.6
40%
Under 2.5 goals
80%
60%
Over 2.5 goals
20%
60%
No goals conceded
40%
20%
Both score
60%

Arsenal - Leeds Key Points

  1. At home in the EPL this season, the Gunners have conceded just one goal.
  2. The hosts have a 100% home record in all formats this season.
  3. Each of Arsenal's two EPL home games this season has contained less than four goals.
  4. A total of only three goals have been scored in Leeds' two away league games this season.
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Our Arsenal vs Leeds Prediction

As suggested above, it's very reasonable to fancy the hosts to come out on top here, but given what we know about both teams, a relativelly low-scoring home win appears to be a little more likely than the early odds of +105 would have us believe. After all, the visitors have not conceded more than one goal on the road this term, with each of their two away EPL games containing no more than two goals. 

The Gunners have won each of their two home games, conceding no more than one goal, scoring no more than three. 

Our Arsenal vs Leeds Pick: Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals. 

Prediction:

 

Arsenal to Win & Under 3.5 Goals

+105
$150 offered for betting!

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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.