Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction & Picks - ATP Wimbledon Championships

ATP - ATP Wimbledon Championships

ATP 14 Russia
Andrey Rublev
7/6/25 06:00
ATP 2 Spain
Carlos Alcaraz

Prediction:

 

Andrey Rublev +7.5 Games

-165
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 by Lou Aguila in ATP Wimbledon Championships Picks

Carlos Alcaraz’s road to a Wimbledon threepeat gets tougher by the round as the Spaniard faces former top-10 player Andrey Rublev of Russia in the fourth round on Sunday.

Alcaraz moved on to the fourth round of the Wimbledon Open after besting Jan-Lennard Struff of Germany 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4. For the second time in the tournament, Alcaraz connected only 58 percent of his first serves and committed four double faults. Despite the inconsistency with his serves, the 5-time Grand Slam winner still managed to win matches by converting breakpoint chance at a high percentage. In his win over Struff, Alcaraz picked up 5 service breaks, two days after breaking Oliver Tarvet 6 times.

After uneventful grass-court buildup, Rublev returns to form at the Wimbledon Open, posting wins over Laslo Djere 6-0 7-6(5) 6-7(9) 7-6(6), Llyod Harris 6-7(1) 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 and Adrian Mannarino 7-5 6-2 6-3. Rublev, a career 29-16 on grass, targets another Grand Slam quarterfinal stint to his cap and a second round-of-8 appearance at the All-England Club after making the quarterfinals of the Wimbledon Open in 2023.

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Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Form

Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz Latest Matches

Andrey Rublev Latest matches
L W L W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jul 4, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Andrey Rublev
3 :  0
Adrian Mannarino

Jul 2, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Andrey Rublev
3 :  1
Lloyd Harris

Jun 30, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Andrey Rublev
3 :  1
Laslo Djere

Jun 19, 2025 - ATP Halle Open

Andrey Rublev
1 :  2
Tomas Martin Etcheverry

Jun 17, 2025 - ATP Halle Open

Andrey Rublev
2 :  0
Sebastian Ofner

Jun 2, 2025 - ATP French Open

Jannik Sinner
3 :  0
Andrey Rublev
Carlos Alcaraz Latest matches
W W W W W W
Victories

6/6 (100%)

Defeats

0/6 (0%)

Jul 4, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Jan-Lennard Struff
1 :  3
Carlos Alcaraz

Jul 2, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Oliver Tarvet
0 :  3
Carlos Alcaraz

Jun 30, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Fabio Fognini
2 :  3
Carlos Alcaraz

Jun 22, 2025 - ATP London - Queen's

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  1
Jiri Lehecka

Jun 21, 2025 - ATP London - Queen's

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  0
Roberto Bautista-Agut

Jun 20, 2025 - ATP London - Queen's

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  0
Arthur Rinderknech

Andrey Rublev against Carlos Alcaraz : Head to Head (H2H)

Andrey Rublev

33 %

Carlos Alcaraz

67 %

Nov 13, 2024 - ATP Finals

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  0
Andrey Rublev

May 1, 2024 - ATP Mutua Madrid Open

Andrey Rublev
2 :  1
Carlos Alcaraz

Nov 15, 2023 - ATP Finals

Carlos Alcaraz
2 :  0
Andrey Rublev
Compare Andrey Rublev and Carlos Alcaraz with our comparison tool.

Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz Key Points

  1. Andrey Rublev defeated Adrian Mannarino 7-5 6-2 6-3 in the third round of the 2025 Wimbledon Open.
  2. Andrey Rublev is 29-16 on grass.
  3. Carlos Alcaraz defeated Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4 in the third round of the 2025 Wimbledon Open.
  4. Carlos Alcaraz is 32-3 on grass.
Up to $150 to bet on Andrey Rublev - Carlos Alcaraz! 

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Our Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Prediction

Why should you pick Andrey Rublev to cover -7.5 Games? (Win $100 on a $175 Bet) – Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite to win in this fourth-round match, but I think his ongoing service woes will open the door for Rublev to put up a good fight and cover. Rublev carries a 1-2 series record against the 5-time Grand Slam champion with his only win coming on clay 4-6 6-3 6-2 in the quarterfinal round of the 2024 Wimbledon Open. Alcaraz has only landed 60 percent of his serves in this tournament and has already committed 27 double faults. He needs to lower the number of double faults and start dialing up that serve to get him prepared for the bigger battles ahead. Against Rublev, though, I don’t think Alcaraz will lose for the reason that the Russian hasn’t been a real threat in Grand Slam tournaments. Nevertheless, I am confident Rublev will play well enough to make Alcaraz sweat a bit in their fourth-round clash.

Our betting prediction for Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz: Andrey Rublev +7.5 Games.

Prediction:

 

Andrey Rublev +7.5 Games

-165
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.

Andrey Rublev vs Carlos Alcaraz Picks
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