ATP - ATP Cincinnati Open
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by Lou Aguila | in ATP Cincinnati Open Picks
Will the +160 underdog Alexei Popyrin make three in a row against Andrey Rublev?
The Australian will attempt to sustain her mastery over the former top-10 Rublev in their upcoming third-round clash at the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Tuesday.
Popyrin made it to the round of 32 of the Cincinnati Open after Martin Landaluce of Spain 7-6(3) 6-3. Fresh off a quarterfinal run in Toronto, Popyrin sustained his impeccable form on the serve, bombarding Landaluce with 15 aces and 37 points on the first serves. The Aussie also captured two breakpoints that allowed him to get the job done in two sets.
Rublev swept Learner Tien also in straight sets 7-6(4) 6-3, avenging his earlier loss to the young American at the Citi Open. The Russian played stronger and sharper in this second matchup with Tien as he allowed only one service break while winning two breakpoints behind 30 return points. The win improved Rublev’s 2025 hard-court record to 11-8 and his overall record this year to 27-17.
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Alexei Popyrin vs Andrey Rublev Form
Alexei Popyrin and Andrey Rublev Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Aug 10, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 4, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Aug 2, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 31, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 29, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 23, 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Aug 10, 2025 - ATP Cincinnati Open
Aug 5, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Aug 3, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Aug 1, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 30, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 23, 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
Alexei Popyrin against Andrey Rublev : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Aug 12, 2024 - ATP National Bank Open
Apr 10, 2024 - ATP Monte Carlo Masters
Oct 24, 2023 - ATP Vienna
Alexei Popyrin - Andrey Rublev Key Points
- Alexei Popyrin defeated Martin Landaluce 7-6(3) 6-3 in the second round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Alexei Popyrin is 2-1 vs. Andrey Rublev in his head-to-head chance
- Andrey Rublev defeated Learner Tien 7-6(4) 6-3 in the second round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open.
- Andrey Rublev is 11-8 on the hard court in 2025.
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Our Alexei Popyrin vs Andrey Rublev Prediction
While I am no longer sure if he can win three in a row against Rublev, Popyrin might still be a firm pick to beat the spread in their match on Tuesday.
Yes, Popyrin failed to defend his Canadian Open title, but Popyrin held his own in his quarterfinal showdown with Alexander Zverev. The Aussie even took the first set before running out of steam against the world’s No.3, 6(8)-7 4-6, 3-6.
Rublev is playing probably his best stretch of tennis this year, apart from his title run in Qatar. After two straight setbacks at the hands of Popyrin, Rublev has enough motivation to end his losing streak against the Aussie. MatchStats gives Rublev a 55 percent win probability for Tuesday’s match with Popyrin, indicating a growing optimism among tennis and betting experts about the Russian’s current form.
Rublev is in terrific shape to beat Popyrin and make a deep run in this tournament. This is why he is my moneyline pick for this particular match. On the other hand, Popyrin has already proven that he can match up well with top-tier players, especially if his shots are landing down the line. Because of that, I would recommend taking Popyrin at +2.5 Games in anticipation of another thrilling matchup.
Our betting prediction for Alexei Popyrin vs. Andrey Rublev: Alexei Popyrin +2.5 Games
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