Alex Michelsen vs Holger Rune Prediction & Picks - ATP Cincinnati Open

Prediction published on 8/11/25, 8:00 AM  by Lou Aguila in ATP Cincinnati Open Picks

Alex Michelsen of the United States faces Holger Rune of Denmark to kick off the third round of the men’s singles tournament at the 2025 Cincinnati Open on Monday.

A +135 underdog against the world’s No.9, Michelsen possesses the ability to shake things up, especially in the spread market, where he is a solid threat to cover a +2.5-game spread.

Michelsen, who reached the quarterfinals of the 2025 Canadian Open, captured his fourth win in five matches following a comeback victory over Corentin Moutet of France 3-6 6-3 6-4. Michelsen rebounded from a lethargic first set with better ball-striking and by looking for more quick points in the second and third sets. The American won 80 percent of his first serves while capturing four breakpoints, which gave him all the edge he needed to pull away from the tough Frenchman.

Rune dug deep from his bag of tricks to stave off an upset bid from Roman Safiullin 7-5 7-6(5) in the second round of the 2025 Cincinnati Open. Rune landed only 54 percent of his first serves, though he still won 32 points on his first serves and 23 on his second, conceding two service breaks. Rune also collected 29 return points to win the three key breakpoints that made all the difference in the hotly contested match.