Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction & Picks - ATP Los Cabos Open

ATP - ATP Los Cabos Open

ATP 76 USA
Aleksandar Kovacevic
7/19/25 23:00
ATP 33 Canada
Denis Shapovalov

Prediction:

 

Aleksandar Kovacevic +3.5 games

-110
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 by Lou Aguila in Tennis Picks

Denis Shapovalov of Canada will go for his second hard-court title of the year against Aleksandar Kovacevic of the United States in the men’s singles final of the 2025 Los Cabos Open.

Shapovalov has made a triumphant return to the hard courts, as the former ATP top-10 player posted three impressive straight-set wins to get another shot at a second ATP main tour title this year. Shapovalov, the title-holder at the 2025 Dallas Open, hasn’t dropped a set in the tournament yet after crushing Govind Nanda 6-1 6-2, Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-2 and Adam Walton 6-2 6-2. Shapovalov is 10-6 on the outdoor hardcourt this year.

Kovacevic also reached his second ATP Main Tour final this year after gutting out an upset over Andrey Rublev 3-6 6-4 6-4. Kovacevic recovered from a sloppy first set by getting the better of the exchanges in the most crucial junctures of the match. Rublev even outscored Kovacevic 98-95, but it was the American who came through at the clutch. Kovacevic, who fell to a Canadian Felix Auger-Aliassime 2–6, 7–6(9–7), 6–7(2–7) in the Open Occitanie earlier this year, aims to capture his first ATP main tour title against another player from Canada on Saturday.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Form

Aleksandar Kovacevic and Denis Shapovalov Latest Matches

Aleksandar Kovacevic Latest matches
L L W W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jul 19, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Andrey Rublev
1 :  2
Aleksandar Kovacevic

Jul 18, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Juan Pablo Ficovich
0 :  2
Aleksandar Kovacevic

Jul 16, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes
0 :  2
Aleksandar Kovacevic

Jul 14, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Hady Habib
1 :  2
Aleksandar Kovacevic

Jul 1, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Aleksandar Kovacevic
2 :  3
Marton Fucsovics

Jun 22, 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open

Aleksandar Kovacevic
0 :  2
Bernard Tomic
Denis Shapovalov Latest matches
W L L W W W
Victories

4/6 (67%)

Defeats

2/6 (33%)

Jul 18, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Denis Shapovalov
2 :  0
Adam Walton

Jul 17, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Tristan Schoolkate
0 :  2
Denis Shapovalov

Jul 16, 2025 - ATP Los Cabos Open

Govind Nanda
0 :  2
Denis Shapovalov

Jul 1, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships

Mariano Navone
3 :  1
Denis Shapovalov

Jun 19, 2025 - ATP Halle Open

Denis Shapovalov
1 :  2
Flavio Cobolli

Jun 17, 2025 - ATP Halle Open

Ugo Humbert
1 :  2
Denis Shapovalov
Compare Aleksandar Kovacevic and Denis Shapovalov with our comparison tool.

Aleksandar Kovacevic - Denis Shapovalov Key Points

  1. Denis Shapovalov defeated Adam Walton 6-2, 6-2 in the semifinal of the 2025 Los Cabos Open.
  2. Denis Shapovalov is 10-6 on outdoor hard courts in 2025.
  3. Aleksandar Kovacevic defeated Andrey Rublev 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the semifinal of the 2025 Los Cabos Open.
  4. Aleksandar Kovacevic will play his second ATP Main Tour final in 2025.

Our Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Prediction

Why should you pick Aleksandar Kovacevic to cover +3.5 games? A veteran of 8 ATP Main tour finals, Shapovalov holds a significant advantage in terms of experience in high-stakes matches. Bookmakers appear to have all agreed on this, placing Shapovalov a -300 favorite to win the match outright. However, it would be outrageous to easily write off Kovacevic, who will come into the match as a more battle-tested competitor after surviving four hard matches, including a couple of three-set tussles. Kovacevic has also created 46 breakpoint opportunities in Los Cobos. Although the American has only converted 16 of these break-point chances, the mere fact that he was able to find this level of success as a returner speaks volumes about Kovacevic’s caliber. Shapovalov may end up winning this game, but I guarantee that Kovacevic will not yield the title easily, knowing that he may never get another opportunity to play for an ATP title again.

Our betting prediction for Aleksandar Kovacevic vs. Denis Shapovalov: Aleksandar Kovacevic will cover +3.5 games.

Prediction:

 

Aleksandar Kovacevic +3.5 games

-110
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Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Denis Shapovalov Picks