MNF: Best Bets for Panthers vs 49ers
by Tyler Doty
While the Panthers and 49ers were resting, the leaders of their respective divisions faced off, with the Los Angeles Rams tearing apart the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And that sums up both teams’ situations with regard to the playoffs. At 6-5, Carolina has an opportunity to win the NFC South and land a home playoff game. At 7-4, San Francisco is pretty close to being out of the race in the NFC West and likely has to get a wild card berth to qualify.
From a prop standpoint, there are other things to consider, namely how much of last week was a breakout for the Panthers. Was that a turning point for the Carolina passing attack, or fool’s gold against the Falcons? How you see it will dictate the strategy you pursue for these props. Here’s how the prop bets look from our perspective.
Bryce Young, Under 20.5 Pass Completions (-121, Caesars)
The line is based on Young building off last week’s win over the Falcons. But that is not where Carolina wants the game to be, even though San Francisco is not strong against the pass. To get to this level of completions, Young has to throw the ball 40 to 50 times. That’s not Carolina’s strength at all, and it’s why Young has only passed this number twice all season.
That’s not necessarily a knock on Young, who’s a developing quarterback that’s learning to take what the defense gives him. It happens, especially with a player who was asked to do too much in college. But it does mean that Young is likely to regress to the mean after last week’s record-setting day. A drop to 20 completions sounds about right.
Christian McCaffrey, Over 5.5 Receptions (+106, FanDuel)
This is an underrated way to get value on McCaffrey this season. He’s been hit or miss on running the football, as he’s alternated good games with bad on the ground over the past six weeks. But he has been as consistent as it gets in the passing game.
No matter who the 49ers have under center, they want to get the ball to McCaffrey. He hasn’t had fewer than six passing targets in a game this year, and only once has he caught less than five passes. With the 49ers completing almost 70% of their passes and the ground game a question mark, it’s both a safer move and a better value play to back McCaffrey’s hands over his legs.
Tetairoa McMillan Over 67.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
If the Panthers line McMillan up properly against the 49ers, he’ll get his yards. Young is clearly starting to build something with the rookie, as McMillan has seen his targets increase from six to eight to 10 to 12 over the past four weeks.
San Francisco hasn’t been good against the pass, and the 49ers are especially weak at stopping the slot receiver. McMillan will line up in the slot a fair amount, and that can provide the chance for a big play. McMillan has gone over his total in three of the past four weeks, and even if Young doesn’t have a big day throwing the football, one or two big catches is all that’s needed. With McMillan averaging almost 14 yards a catch, that is doable.
