Key Factors for Playoff Matches in UCL and UEL
by Sam Cox | by Tyler Doty
This week sees the playoff round across Europe's continental competitions. There are marquee fixtures across the Champions League and Europa League, including Benfica hosting Real Madrid, PSG visiting Monaco, and Celtic facing Stuttgart.
Some clubs enter this round under immense pressure. Falling at this stage would be a major disappointment for Real Madrid, PSG, or Inter. It's very much a free hit for other clubs like Club Brugge, Bodø/Glimt, Qarabag, Brann, and Ferencvaros.
Here are the key factors to keep an eye on across the playoff matches:
Turkish Home Advantage
Turkish teams are traditionally very hard to beat on home soil. Galatasaray and Fenerbahce are facing Juventus and Nottingham Forest, respectively.
Galatasaray drew with Atletico Madrid and beat Liverpool and Bodø/Glimt in the league phase. They were unbeaten at home in contintental competition in 2024-25.
Fenerbahce held Benfica to a draw at home in Champions League qualifying. They drew with Manchester United and Lyon in the league phase last year.
Juventus are favorites. Forest have more than a puncher’s chance of progressing. Perhaps sportsbooks are underrating these two Turkish powerhouses, though, particularly with the challenge that Juve and Forest face by going on the road this week.
Both Galatasaray and Fenerbahce boast squads with plenty of experience on big European nights. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the pair progress.
In-Form Showdowns
Bodø/Glimt defeated Atletico Madrid and Manchester City. Inter are on a six-match winning streak across all competitions. Borussia Dortmund and Atalanta meet with both teams riding three-match winning streaks.
Over in the Europa League, Celtic host a Stuttgart team that’s won five of its last six. Fenerbahce have also won four matches in a row.
Teams can defy the form guide. It’s not uncommon for a club to have a strong season in contintental competition while struggling domestically. Dortmund have been excellent in the league but lost their final two Champions League phase matches to land in this playoff scenario. Atalanta have been patchy throughout the season.
Pressure Accompanies Expectations
Playing the away leg first is traditionally considered a positive. Juventus, Real Madrid, Inter, PSG, Newcastle, and Atletico have this luxury in the Champions League.
For clubs expected to reach the next round, it potentially increases the pressure. A suboptimal result on the road could leave any of those teams needing to fight back in the second leg.
Club Brugge, for instance, have already beaten Marseille and Monaco at home and drawn with Barcelona. How nervy does it get for Atleti if they lose in Belgium this week?
Bodø/Glimt have proven they can get results against more talented opponents. What if they’re heading to Milan with a one- or two-goal advantage?
Imagine how tense St. James’ Park will be if Newcastle don’t have a lead over Qarabag.
Stretched Squads
Some teams are built for the rigors of midweek football more than others. Monaco have five players sidelined, which dampens their chances of upsetting rivals PSG. Real Madrid are fully fit and managed to rest Kylian Mbappé at the weekend, while still securing a 4-1 win.
Winning comfortably while giving key players time off is a luxury some managers can only dream of. Atalanta don’t have many injury worries, but they were forced to work hard to beat Lazio at the weekend. A routine win over Mainz should ensure Dortmund are fresher.
Going on a run in European competition requires a mix of fortune and durability. Keep an eye on the teams that look leggy in this week’s fixtures.
Surprises are Inevitable
There’s not much of a sample to go on with this playoff round. It’s worth noting, though, that there were several scalps at this stage in 2024-25.
Feyenoord knocked out Milan, Club Brugge overturned Atalanta, and PSV Eindhoven stunned Juventus in the Champions League. In the Europa League, Twente saw off Bodø/Glimt, Ajax needed extra time to get past Union Saint-Gilloise, and FCSB knocked out PAOK.
There are going to be upsets this time around, too. It might not of the most dramatic variety, like Bodø/Glimt seeing off Inter, but teams are this stage are good enough to beat almost anyone over two legs, particularly as their opponents have stuttered in the league phase.
Champions League Playoff Fixtures
- Galatasaray vs. Juventus
- Borussia Dortmund vs. Atalanta
- Benfica vs. Real Madrid
- Monaco vs. PSG
- Qarabag vs. Newcastle
- Bodø/Glimt vs. Inter
- Olympiacos vs. Bayer Leverkusen
- Club Brugge vs. Atletico Madrid
Europa League Playoff Fixtures
- PAOK vs. Celta Vigo
- Fenerbahce vs. Nottingham Forest
- Dinamo Zagreb vs. Genk
- Brann vs. Bologna
- Panathinaikos vs. Viktoria Plzen
- Lille vs. Crvena Zvezda
- Celtic vs. Stuttgart
- Ludogorets Razgrad vs. Ferencvaros
