SNF: Rams vs Bears Divisional Round Matchup Props

by Tyler Doty

image SNF: Rams vs Bears Divisional Round Matchup Props
Cold weather looms as the Rams visit the Bears in the divisional round. We break down key player props impacted by wind, snow, and Chicago’s edge.

The Los Angeles Rams head to Chicago for the divisional round of the playoffs, playing really poorly away from home. They’ve lost three of their past five road games, and they didn’t look their best in squeezing past Carolina in the wild card round. And now they’re going into Soldier Field, a place that has never treated the Rams well.

Chicago is 8-2 ATS in its past 10 home games with the Rams, in part because the weather is the Bears’ 12th man. The Rams have been either a dome or warm-weather team for the past 80 years, as they’ve either represented Los Angeles or St. Louis and never experienced cold weather at home in either place. They’ll get it here, as forecasts are calling for a wind chill of -11, sustained winds of 15 miles per hour and a 50-50 chance of snow in the first half.

That means that prop expectations need to be adjusted. Passing isn’t going to be as easy as it usually is for Matthew Stafford. And while Stafford did play the Bears in Chicago every year for 12 seasons in Detroit, only three of those games came outdoors in December or January. The Lions and the Minnesota Vikings both play in domes, so Stafford’s cold-weather experience isn’t nearly as extensive as his past would suggest.

Here’s a look at what’s on the board.

Kyren Williams, Over 59.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

The Bears’ defense is not its strength, and certainly not on the ground. Chicago allows five yards per carry, and the Rams will not hesitate to attack a weakness. With the wind being what it is, Los Angeles needs Williams more than usual to have a reliable way to scratch out yardage.

Williams is getting roughly 13 carries per game, with that going up slightly when the Rams really need him. Only Tampa Bay and Seattle held him to less than 4.4 yards per carry. But the Seahawks lead the league in stopping the run, and the Buccaneers rank a decent 13th. The Bears rank 29th against the run. Williams should have holes here.

Matthew Stafford Under 263.5 Passing Yards (-114, FanDuel)

Stafford is still getting priced as if this game is being played in decent weather. It’s not, and the Rams have not been good in the cold since trading for Stafford. He’s 1-8 in cold-weather games with the Rams, and this game brings wind gusts that could throw off timing between him and his receivers.

The Bears can be attacked through the secondary, but the wind serves as an extra defender. To compensate, Stafford will likely opt for shorter, safer routes. That might make the Rams’ offense work, but it doesn’t do much for Stafford getting to this number.

D’Andre Swift Over 13.5 Rushing Attempts (+112, FanDuel)

The Bears are far more used to these conditions than the Rams. Chicago also wants to keep the Rams’ powerful offense off the field as much as possible. That means controlling the clock, and that means giving D’Andre Swift the ball.

The Rams have a good run defense, so this is a spot where it’s smarter to play the attempts over the volume. Swift might have a tough time finding holes against Los Angeles, but he will keep getting opportunities if the game stays close. If that happens, he will hit this number.