Analyzing the Opening NBA Defensive Player of the Year Odds

Victor Wembanyama has opened as the clear favorite to win NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2025/26. Wembanyama, who was widely tipped for the award in NBA picks last season, missed out on the honor after suffering deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder.

The former first overall pick finished the campaign with 4.96 stocks per game. Dyson Daniels, who has the second-most steals and blocks per contest, had 3.71.

Chet Holmgren and Evan Mobley trail Wembanyama in the opening DPOY odds at +650 and +950, respectively.

NBA DPOY Odds

• Victor Wembanyama - -170
• Chet Holmgren - +650
• Evan Mobley - +950
• Amen Thompson - +2500
• Dyson Daniels - +2500
• Anthony Davis - +3000
• Ivica Zubac - +3500
• Jaren Jackson Jr. - +5000
• Bam Adebayo - +5000
• Rudy Gobert - +5000
• Draymond Green - +5000
• Luguentz Dort - +5000
• Jalen Suggs - +6500
• Giannis Antetokounmpo - +6500

Odds courtesy of FanDuel sportsbook.

Wembanyama’s Award To Lose?

Does Wembanyama have this award wrapped up before the season has begun? He probably does if – and it’s a big if – he meets the 65-game threshold. His block and steal numbers are historically great, and the San Antonio Spurs were one of the worst defenses in the league when he was off the floor.

The massive on/off differential only furthers Wembanyama’s case as the league’s most impactful defenders. Opponents frequently bail out on shots at the basket when the Frenchman is on the court.

San Antonio didn’t make any big swings in NBA free agency, though, and rumors about a trade for Kevin Durant or Giannis Antetokounmpo didn’t materialize. If the Spurs are outside the top-eight in defensive rating and a long way from a top-six spot in a stacked Western Conference, a case could begin to be made for a player on a contending team.

Holmgren’s Durability

Holmgren also fell far short of the games played criteria. He appeared in only 32 regular-season games after playing all 82 in his sophomore campaign. With 114 games played in three NBA seasons, it’s impossible to trust the durability of the Oklahoma City Thunder big man.

The +650 accounts for Holmgren missing games, including the likelihood that he doesn’t qualify for the award. His block numbers (2.2 per game last season) are impressive, but he still has almost two fewer stocks per game than Wemby.

There won’t be an on/off argument for Holmgren with how dominant the OKC defense is. The Thunder are too complete a defensive unit for any of their players to win this award.

Could Mobley Go Back-To-Back?

Mobley deserves to be a shorter price than +950 if Holmgren is +650. The Cleveland Cavaliers forward/center averages 67.25 games played per season and has cleared the threshold in three of his four NBA campaigns.

Cleveland’s defense was 2.9 points better per 100 possessions with Mobley on the floor. He excelled at the four and five, with his switchability allowing the Cavs to cover for some of their weaker defensive players.

Mobley doesn’t put up as many blocks as Wembanyama or Holmgren, but he’s rightly regarded as one of the NBA’s best defensive players. If Cleveland is a top-five defense, he’s got a clear path to winning this award again.

Longshot Considerations

Amen Thompson (+2500), Jalen Suggs, and Giannis Antetokounmpo (both +6500) represent the best value outside the top three. Thompson was second in deflections per game last season and should see his role increase further on the Houston Rockets after Dillon Brooks was traded away.

Suggs, like Thompson, is an integral cog in an elite defensive team. Both the Orlando Magic and Rockets project to be top-five defensive teams – they have the upside to rival the Thunder for the NBA’s best defensive rating.

The Milwaukee Bucks were 12th in defensive rating last season and Giannis finished eighth in DPOY voting. Paired with Myles Turner in the frontcourt, could the Greek Freak power the Bucks to a top-10 defense? If Milwaukee is somehow a top-four team in the Eastern Conference, he’s bound to get some momentum behind him when it comes to award-voting season.