MNF: Best Bets for Texans vs Steelers
by Tyler Doty
The Houston Texans arrive for the playoffs in very unfamiliar territory. First, they’ve never played on the road in the wild card round. Every time Houston has made the playoffs, it did so by winning the AFC South title. For the first time in team history, the Texans finished second in their division but still had a strong enough record to qualify for the playoffs.
Second, they haven’t beaten the Steelers in Pittsburgh since their expansion season. Houston stunned Pittsburgh 24-6 in that game, but has since gone 0-3 in the Steel City.
The Steelers are in familiar territory, but they’d like to change the narrative with their situation. Pittsburgh has lost six consecutive playoff games and hasn’t won in the postseason since 2017. Part of that is because Pittsburgh has barely squeezed into the playoffs in its past three trips, but the Steelers have also lost home games to Jacksonville and Cleveland.
Here’s a look at the available props between two teams desperate to change the narratives about them in this wild card game.
CJ Stroud, Over 229.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel)
Stroud excels at taking what the defense gives him. The Houston quarterback doesn’t force things; he throws when the situation calls for it and either takes off or hands the ball off when facing a weak run defense.
The Steelers’ biggest weakness is their pass defense, as they rank 29th in the NFL against the pass. That doesn’t often hurt the Steelers in January because of Pittsburgh’s winter weather, but that’s not going to be the case in this game. Temperatures will be cold, but wind won’t play a factor, so Stroud won’t have to worry about that aspect.
That should give him the conditions he needs to fire away at the Steelers’ defense, which puts this target very much in reach. As long as the Texans don’t knock the Steelers out of the game in the first half and spend the second half killing clock, Stroud should get here.
Nico Collins, Over 71.5 Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel)
A late schedule of Arizona, Las Vegas and Tennessee meant Houston could afford to keep Collins fresh and limit his workload. Now that it’s playoff time, he should get back to what he was doing. If Stroud is going to attack the Steeler secondary, Collins is likely to do the damage.
How often Stroud targets Collins has a direct correlation with how close the game is. Against Seattle, Denver and Jacksonville, Collins received 36 targets from Stroud because the Texans needed him against that level of opposition. In a playoff game, Stroud will likely look in Collins’ direction early and often.
Aaron Rodgers Over 32.5 Passing Attempts (-112, FanDuel)
The Steelers have to go with their strength, which means Aaron Rodgers and DK Metcalf. The truth is, there’s not a good way to attack this Texans defense, which has shut down almost every opponent it has faced.
Houston leads the league in fewest yards allowed, and the Texans’’ run defense is slightly better than the pass defense. The Steelers also don’t want to run the ball unless they have to, which means they’ll trust Rodgers to use his experience to protect himself from the Texans’ pass rush. The Steelers are likely to fall behind, which means Rodgers will have to throw to try to stay in the game.
