Previewing the Upcoming Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Competition
by Erik Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
Every year on July 4, Nathan's Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest turns Coney Island into an arena of excess and victory. The contestants have 10 minutes to down as many hot dogs and buns as possible.
Bun dipping is permitted, but regurgitation is an automatic disqualification. Since its beginning in the early 2000s under the leadership of Takeru Kobayashi and Joey Chestnut, the competition has become a Fourth of July tradition and a high-risk proposition for gamblers.
16-time world champion and record holder Joey "Jaws" Chestnut comes back on July 4 after sitting out the 2024 competition amidst a sponsorship controversy. The absence opened the door for Patrick Bertoletti, who won the Mustard Belt last year with a 58 hot dog performance, ending Chestnut's reign.
Chestnut has a dominating past: he took 16 championships from 2007, when he beat Kobayashi, to 2023 and set the contest record of 76 hot dogs in 2021. He even won another contest while on break by consuming 83 hot dogs in 10 minutes. With his return, the bookmakers have moved fast to respond.
Chestnut Back on Top?
The heavy favorite this year is Chestnut. Bookmakers assign him a tremendous probability of winning, with the projected hot dog total being 72 to 76. Caesars has him way in front at -2000, with Bertoletti and Geoffrey Esper tied for a far second at +1600.
The remaining challengers get scant notice in straight-win bets, but there's fresh money on props. Luigi-style challengers like Esper, James Webb (+1600), and Nick Wehry provide long-odds value.
With Chestnut missing last year, Esper was a close favorite, and Webb and Wehry put up good figures. Prop bets such as "Wehry over 47.5 hot dogs" have paid recently. Streaming betting now focuses on whether Chestnut will top 70, 75, or even make a push at 80—though 80+ is a long shot.
As things stand now, DraftKings has Chestnut Over 71.5 hot dogs at -105. The under 71.5 is -125.
Looking at recent contests, the results indicate Chestnut's dominance. In 2021, he set the world record at 76 hot dogs. He then had 63 in 2022 and 62 in 2023.
Chestnut's recent record is nearly flawless—16 titles, one loss (to Matt Stonie in 2015), and annual totals typically in the mid-70s to high 60s. However, a year ago, with Chestnut out, the title went to Patrick Bertoletti at 58 dogs.
Looking for a New Record
This year, bettors are monitoring important angles closely. The over 71.5 hot dogs line for Chestnut is being considered seriously. Depending on his rhythm, most expect him to surpass that hot dog tally. Head-to-head props pitting Chestnut against Esper or Webb offer players who prefer relative bets alternatives.
And it is worth betting on the underdogs. Geoffrey Esper, the perennial second-place winner at 47-50 hot dogs, is a safe bet for second. James Webb and Nick Wehry have also upped their game, with Webb reaching over 50 last year and Wehry going from the low 40s to the high 40s in recent competitions.
Straight bets on an individual such as Esper to win or proposition bets of 47–50 hot dogs on such competitors are appealing to risk-taking bettors.
There will be a lot of factors on the contest day that will determine the outcome. Chestnut's well-being and starting speed will determine whether he gets into his customary stride or falters. Heat or a poor beginning could limit his total.
If he slips, Esper, Webb, or Wehry is going to pounce into the low 50s, offering great value on over or underdog wagers. Live wagers will also be important, with in-game lines adjusting with the pace at the five-minute mark.
2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds (Men's)
- Joey Chestnut -1800
- Patrick Bertoletti +1000
- James Webb +2500
- Geoffrey Esper +3000
- Field (Any participant not listed) +3500
- Nick Wehry +4500
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
