BMW Championship Best Bets and Outrights
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
Race for the Fedex Cup over already?
In recent seasons, we’ve seen some exciting climaxes to the Fedex Cup race, but this year, we could be a little short on drama. Let’s face it, Scottie Scheffler is pretty much over the line already, and he’ll likely only need to play some half-decent golf this week to secure the title before we head to East Lake.
Of course, if one of those in the chasing pack, such as Rory McIlroy can get the job done this week, things will certainly be more interesting heading into the Tour Championship, which takes place next week at Eastlake.
It’s also worth mentioning that we’re into the play-off period of the season, meaning that it’s all about being in the top 30 of the FedExCup standings at the end of this event. Those, and only those, who are in the top 30 following the BMW Championship will tee it up at East Lake, where the Tour Championship will take place next week.
Bet on the BMW Championship with FanDuel
No cut changes things this week
This is a no-cut event, meaning that everyone involved will play on each of the four days, with those playing well enough to ensure that they finish the week in the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings going on to compete in the Tour Championship at East Lake next week.
How does the lack of needing to make the cut, or perhaps I should say the fear of not making the cut, change things this week? Realistically, it allows for more attacking golf. Of course, those who typically take a more sensible approach will want to ensure that they don’t bomb out on the first day, but the mere knowledge that you’ll be playing weekend golf no matter what happens absolutely gives players more breathing space, which breeds more golfing freedom.
Not having a cut also changes how bettors should approach the event in the sense that it is all about giving preference to those players that are more risk averse. You want to side with players who are willing to go for broke, those who will prioritise birdies. Given that there’s no playing it safe to secure a Saturday tee time, those who have shown the ability to make an above average number of birdies and shoot low scores should be the focus.
BMW Championship betting market
Surprise, surprise, the man who makes it look so easy once again dominates the betting market, as he has ahead of virtually every event that he’s been involved in over the last couple of seasons. In what appeared to be second gear, Scottie Scheffler came within a whisker of winning last week, so he’ll probably win with a bit to spare if he turns up in the mood at Caves Valley Golf Club, let’s face it.
Ahead of the BMW Championship, let’s look at the outright betting from our top sportsbooks:
Scottie Scheffler +225
Rory McIlroy +800
Xander Schauffele +1800
Tommy Fleetwood +2000
Ludvig Aberg +2200
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Justin Thomas +2500
J.J. Spaun +3000
Cameron Young +3000
Matt Fitzpatrick +3500
Collin Morikawa +3500
Chris Gotterup +3500
Ben Griffin +3500
Viktor Hovland +3500
Sam Burns +3500
Russell Henley +3500
Sure, Scheffler dominates the betting and there’s a more than decent chance that he dominates out of the course in Maryland too, but that doesn’t mean that we’re devoid of betting opportunities. Read below for a few appealing angles, plus don’t forget to check out all of our recommended bets on our dedicated picks page
Xander Schauffele to win: +1800 with FanDuel
At the end of the day, if you want to bet on Scottie this week, go for it. He’s not going to be far away, let’s be honest. However, Scheffler being such a strong favorite, at least in my mind, has allowed a couple of other top players to be priced slightly generously, one of which is Xander Schauffele, who has been ticking along nicely in recent weeks and who has a very decent BMW Championship record.
Schauffele has finished inside the top 10 in two of his last three events, suggesting that his time may be near. He also played some top-quality golf on Saturday and Sunday at TPC Southwind last week, ranking as the third-best in the field for scoring on those two days. This tells me that his game is in decent enough shape for him to seriously attempt going low on a course that will favour offensive golf this week.
I also quite like the fact that the world number three cannot afford to have a bad week. If he wants to be in the finale next week, which he obviously does, then he needs to have a good week at Caves Valley. I’m betting on him to do just that. After all, in his last appearances at this tournament he’s finished T5, T8 and T3.
When he’s on it, Xander can shoot low scores with the best of them and with the course and format in Maryland set up to favor low scoring, the two-time major winner and Olympic gold medallist is worth supporting in the outright betting.
Russell Henley top 10 finish: +195 with FanDuel
Steering away from the outright futures market now, I’m looking at potential top-10 bets, of which there are a couple of standouts from a value point of view. Russell Henley is up first.
The world number five, like Schauffele, will head to Maryland having played some superb golf of late, finishing no lower than T17 in any of his last five events. He’s finished T10 or better in four of those five, going very close in second at the Travelers Championship back in June.
In general, 2025 has been an excellent year for Henley, who back in March added a fifth PGA Tour win to his CV by getting it done at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He’s also registered an additional eight top-10’s this season, so yeah, his game has been on point.
Not without BMW Championship either, finishing T8 back in 2023, Henley ticks a few too many boxes for me to ignore him in the top-10 market at odds of +195.
Kurt Kitayama top 10 finish: +260 with FanDuel
Lastly, it’s time to talk about Kurt Kitayama, who thanks to some fantastic recent efforts has given himself a fantastic chance of securing a place in the Tour Championship, which is hugely desirable given that doing so guarantees a place in the field of both the 2026 U.S. Open and Open Championship.
Over the last month or so, Kitayama has taken his game to the next level, winning the 3M Open, also finishing T5 at the John Deere Classic and T9 at the Fedex St. Jude Championship last week.
A strong driving game will be advantageous this week, so it bodes well that the big-hitting Kitayama ranks easily above average when it comes to strokes gained: off-the-tee, while his overall tee-to-green game is more than strong enough to suggest that he can set up lots of scoring opportunities this week, much as he has done in recent weeks. At odds of +260, he’s another player to side with in the top-10 market.
