2025 US Open Best Bets and Outrights
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
US Open at Oakmont = high scoring
When the best in the business get down to it, we typically expect the scores to be low, and often, the big dogs don't disappoint. However, the US Open is arguably the hardest tournament to go low at, so maybe we should expec less low-scoring stuff this week.
The general set-up of any US Open, with narrow fairways and intensified rough, promotes less low-scoring play than most tournaments. At Oakmont, this is particularly true. The tournament was last hosted at the Pennsylvanian course back in 2016, when Dustin Johnson won with a rather modest 72-hole score of -4.
Back in 2007, Oakmot presented players with one of the toughest US Open tests in recent times, with Angel Cabrera eventually coming out on top at no less than five over par after 72 holes. In 1995, Ernie Els won with a final score of -5, which is actually the best-ever winning score at Oakmont.
Previous US Open winning scores at Oakmont:
- 2016: -4 (Dustin Johnson)
- 2007: +5 (Angel Cabrera)
- 1994: -5 (Ernie Els)
- 1983: -4 (Larry Nelson)
- 1973: -5 (Johnny Miller)
- 1962: -1 (Jack Nicklaus)
- 1953: -5 (Ben Hogan)
- 1935: +11 (Sam Parks Jr.)
- 1926: +13 (Tommy Armour)
Of course, someone like Scottie Scheffler could break the trend and go super low this week, but I certainly wouldn’t hold out much hope of the winning score being much below level par.
What does an Oakmont winner look like?
The test in Pennsylvania will be a tough one, there’s no doubt about that. Even some of the best players on the planet are going to struggle to score well. Why? Primarily, low-scoring will be prevented by treacherous rough. The US Open is all about promoting accuracy by ensuring that it’s anything but easy for those who are wayward, especially off the tee and on approach, to recover.
In other words, to win at Oakmont, you’ve got to be accurate, especially with approach shots. Players that thrive in terms of greens in regulation are likely to do well, while Oakmont is not really a course that you want to be tackling if you’re out of form, so look for those who’ve had their game in tip-top shape recently, that’s my advice. Now, that may seem quite obvious, but at some majors, such as the Masters, recent form is far from the be-all-and-end-all, but the task in Plum this week is very different to the task at Augusta, and I’m very much of the opinion that a mixture of approach-shot accuracy and recent form is key.
US Open betting market
The outright betting from our our top sportsbooks currently looks like this:
- Scottie Scheffler +280
- Bryson DeChambeau +700
- Rory McIlroy +1200
- Jon Rahm +1200
- Xander Schauffele +2200
- Ludvig Aberg +2200
- Collin Morikawa +2500
- Joaquin Niemann +3000
- Tommy Fleetwood +4000
- Justin Thomas +4000
- Patrick Cantlay +4500
- All other players +5000 or bigger
Surprise, surprise, Scottie Scheffler leads the way in the betting, and he’s not just the favorite, oh no, he’s a rock-solid market leader. Listen, the US Open is probably the major most tailored to Scheffler, who is Mr. Accurate. It’s impossible to argue the fact that the world number one tops the betting, but given that the US Open is certainly the one of the three stateside majors that demands the most in terms of consistency, odds of +280 look a little skinny. If you bet Scheffler and he gets it done, fair enough, but personally, I’m going to look elsewhere.
And now for the fun part. It’s time to get stuck into a few betting angles. For all of our bets, visit our dedicated picks page.
Sepp Straka to win & top 10 finish: +5000 & +290 with FanDuel
As mentioned above, accuracy is going to be the name of the game at Oakmont this week, and let’s face it, Sepp Straka is accurate. The Austrian comes into this tournament off the back of a very solid third last time out. On that occasion, he recorded the lowest score in the field for the final 36 holes, even beating tournament winner Scottie Scheffler in that respect, while he boasts some stats that simply make him a more viable bet than current odds would suggest.
Right now, Straka ranks as the third best player on the PGA Tour for strokes gained: approach, while he’s number four for strokes gained: tee-to-green. Such stats definitely look positive ahead of the action in Plum. Oh, and he’s the number one PGA Tour player for greens in regulation this season. That cannot be ignored.
A man in strong form, the 32-year-old has recorded a win, a T13 and a third in his last four starts, playing most recently as if he’s definitely ready to compete on the biggest stage. I’m betting on him to do just that.
Bet on the 2025 US Open with FanDuel
Tommy Fleetwood top 10 finish: +250 with FanDuel
Often the bridesmaid, but never the bride, major glory has so far eluded Tommy Fleetwood, and realistically, it probably will again, but I can see the Englishman playing well this week, so I’m betting on him to register a top-ten finish at odds of +250.
Fleetwood is no stranger to going close in the big events, making the top ten on five occasions in majors since 2022. Like Straka, he’s been playing well in recent weeks too, making the top 20 at the Memorial, while he’s made the top ten on three recent occasions too.
I’d also argue that Fleetwood has the right sort of game for Oakmont. He’s very good from a strokes gained: tee-to-green point of view, while his approach game is very solid too. From a strokes gained: total standpoint, across the last eight events, only six players in the US Open field rank better than Tommy Fleetwood. Yet, there are seven players ahead of him in the top-ten betting. Be real, he’s a slightly more serious top-ten candidate than the early betting would have us believe.
Keegan Bradley top 10 finish: +450 with FanDuel
Lastly, we arrive at Keegan Bradley, the one-time major winner who has enjoyed something of a renaissance period over the last couple of seasons. The world number 18 looks like a good course fit, I must say.
Keegan Bradley is currently the PGA Tour’s third best competitor in terms of strokes gained: tee-to-green, while across the last eight events, he’s the number one player in the field when it comes to strokes gained: around-the-green, ranking also as the sixth best player for strokes gained: approach.
Bradley recently finished inside the top ten at the Memorial Tournament, while he also made the top ten at the PGA Championship, showcasing that he can tussle with the best on the big occasion. Quite simply, he’s another guy who has stronger top-ten credentials than the early odds suggest.
