MLB Playoffs: Division Series Matchups & Picks
by Tyler Doty | by Tyler Doty
Here’s a look at the four division series with odds from FanDuel, starting with the American League.
New York Yankees (-155) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (+130)
The question here is power vs. defense. If the Yankees can get the ball out of the park, something they did better than anyone all year, there’s little that Toronto’s outstanding defense can do. If the Blue Jays keep the ball from reaching the fence, they’re likely to grab just about everything.
Toronto is kind of a throwback, a team that relies on pitching, defense and putting the ball in play to get wins. That’s far more consistent in the playoffs, and it means there is value on the higher seed. The Blue Jays won eight of 13 against New York in the regular season, which is why they won the division. They have now gotten stronger with the addition of Shane Bieber, who usually only allows runs via the long ball.
While that might seem to play to the Yankees’ strengths, there’s a problem: Bieber doesn’t usually allow base runners. Solo home runs won’t get the job done against Toronto’s balance.
Prediction: Blue Jays in five.
Detroit Tigers (+155) vs. Seattle Mariners (-185)
The Tigers have to be kicking themselves for how they collapsed in September. Detroit could have, should have been the No. 1 seed and avoided this matchup until the ALCS, or even entirely. And that’s big, because if there’s one team that can spook the Tigers, it’s Seattle.
That’s because the Mariners’ lineup isn’t fazed by the prospect of facing Tarik Skubal. Against most teams, two Skubal starts would mean two in the win column. But the Mariners knocked Skubal out of the game before six innings both times, and Detroit’s pitching staff behind him doesn’t meet that level. Casey Mize and Jack Flaherty would be solid against another opponent, but Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez give the Mariners a big edge.
Worse news for Detroit: Skubal’s only available in one of the first four games. Having him in a decisive Game 5 only matters if the Tigers can actually get there.
Prediction: Mariners in four.
Chicago Cubs (+100) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-120)
Like the Blue Jays-Yankees series, this is pitching and defense against power. And power is just not that consistent. Chicago’s series against San Diego showed that, as the Cubs scored just six runs in the three-game series and won anyway.
Milwaukee also brings plenty of speed on the basepaths, and aggression can make a big difference in the playoffs. The Cubs’ bullpen really stepped up in the Padres series, but Chicago’s pitching hasn’t been as strong as Milwaukee’s. If the Cubs can’t get the bats going, the Brewers have the edge.
The Cubs barely won the season series 7-6, and these teams battled back and forth all year. Expect that to continue.
Prediction: Brewers in five.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+100)
The Phillies earned their way here, but this is a team that’s been sapped of its biggest strengths. Philadelphia did so well with its starting pitching, but the Phillies don’t have Zack Wheeler available now. With him and Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia was likely the World Series favorite. Without him, it’s hard to see the Phillies advancing.
The Dodgers just have too much across the board. Shohei Ohtani gets so much attention, especially now that he can pitch again this season, but Los Angeles has so much more than just him. This is a complete team across the board, and dusting the Reds in two games means they can set their pitching how they like.
The Phillies will fight gamely, but the Dodgers should show why they’re the defending champs.
Prediction: Dodgers in four.
