2025 Europa League Semi Finals: Possible Second-Leg Turnarounds or All Over?
by Bradley Gibbs | by Bradley Gibbs
What happened a week ago?
OK, so if you don’t already know, here’s how the ties stand after the first leg:
Man United currently lead Athletic Bilbao on aggregate by three goals to zero
Tottenham currently lead Bodo/Glimt on aggregate by three goals to one
Starting with what happened in Bilbao, where the final of this competition will take place in just over two weeks' time, it’s fair to say that the Red Devils could not have asked for a better first leg.
Despite being faced with seemingly a tricky test at San Mames, where Athletic Club had not lost since January, not losing at home on the continent since 2018, Ruben Amorim’s men came flying out of the gates, scoring inside the opening seven minutes of the game through Alejandro Garnacho, who had his celebrations cut short thanks to the intervention of VAR.
Not rocked by that disappointment, the English team continued to come on strong, eventually taking the lead in wholly unlikely circumstances, when central defender Harry Maguire crossed for Manuel Ugarte, who nodded across for his defensive midfield partner Casemiro to finish.
Five minutes later, the poor start from the hosts was amplified, with defender Dani Vivian being shown a straight red card for a poor challenge inside the box, leaving Bruno Fernandes to convert from the spot, scoring his seventh goal of the competition. The Portuguese midfielder added his second goal just before the break, leaving United to see out the second-half in a more relaxed manner, safe in the knowledge that the hard work had already been done.
From North London to Norway
In North London, the hosts were expected by fans, pundits and the market to triumph against Bodo/Glimt, and triumph they did, speeding into an early lead, with Brennan Johnson scoring inside a minute.
Playing against a side missing key players and a side that looked a little overwhelmed by the occasion, Ange Postecoglou’s men doubled their lead through James Maddison, who after 34 minutes, latched onto a precise long ball from Pedro Porro, before slotting cooly at the far post.
A third goal was scored by Spurs in the second half, when Dominic Solanke slotted from the penalty spot, much as he did in the previous round against Frankfurt. From there on out it looked like playing sailing, but as the hosts stepped off the gas, Bodo found a second wind, scoring late in the game through Ulrik Saltnes, who scored twice against Lazio in the quarters. With that goal in the bag, the Norwegians returned home knowing that they’re still in the tie.
Is there hope for the Basque team?
The situation that Thursday’s Old Trafford visitors find themselves in is a gloomy one, there’s no doubt about that. They’re three goals down, and as such, they must push forward and leave themselves exposed at the back, which could quite easily lead to further punishment.
Let’s be honest, the task ahead of Ernesto Valverde’s men is a thankless one, and they’re likely doomed either way. Sit back too much and they won’t score the goals necessary. Go for it and look to create openings and they run the risk of being too open on the break.
The fact that the men from Spain’s Basque region have done most of their best work at home in this competition doesn’t exactly bode well either. Interestingly, the visitors have scored just two goals in their last three away Europa League games, conceding six at the other end. Should we expect them to turn this around? Probably not, especially with key players such as Inaki Williams and Nico Williams expected to miss out through injury.
Does Bodo’s late first-leg goal give them hope at home?
Should the hosts be hopeful ahead of Thursday’s second leg in the Norwegian city of Bodo? I’d argue that they should. Now, I know that you may be thinking that home advantage can’t change that much, and you may be right, in some cases. However, in this case, playing at home could very easily be what allows Kjetil Knutsen’s men to compete, at least more than they did a week ago.
For starters, the visitors will be making what is nearly a 2000-mile trip. One way. Moreover, they’ll be playing in a much more intimate, much less high-spec arena, playing also on an artificial surface. All of this should mean that Ange’s men, at the very least, endure a tougher evening than they did on home soil.
If Spurs came into this game with an aggregate lead of three goals, then sure, it would be very difficult to see the hosts challenging, but thanks to that late goal that they scored last week, a two-goal disadvantage seems far more workable. After all, they got the better of Lazio by two goals to nil at home last round, while they’ve scored multiple goals in six of their last seven home UEL games, scoring plenty against the likes of Besiktas and Porto.
From here, I’m looking to see if any player props stand out ahead of the second legs. Given the odds, I may just have found a few viable angles. Try these:
Man United vs Athletic Club: Manuel Ugarte to Get a Card
For the Red Devils, this is all about getting over the line. Sure, in front of the Old Trafford crowd, they’ll want to score goals
We’ll likely see a fair amount of time wasting, breaking up play and cheap fouls from the hosts, which should suit Manuel Ugarte just fine. The Uruguayan loves to break up play, while he also loves to make cheap fouls, so much so that I’m rather surprised to see him available at odds of +260 to go in the book here. Such odds offer value for money as far as I’m concerned.
After all, Ugarte is United’s most prolific fouler in all competitions this season, while he has picked up more yellows than any other player at the club too, collecting 14 in total. That’s an all-competition average of 0.46 cards per 90 minutes. That number alone makes odds of +260 look generous.
Bodo/Glimt vs Tottenham: Rodrigo Bentancur to Get a Card
With Spurs in a similar position to the other English team left in the competition, albeit on the road, we shouldn’t be surprised to see someone like Rodrigo Bentancur, who is very good at breaking things up and fouling tactically, get himself in trouble. Like his Uruguayan friend above, Bentancur knows all about getting his name taken, especially in big games. This is the biggest game of the Spurs’ season. This term, no Spurs player has picked up more cards than Bentancur, who has been booked 12 times in all competitions, averaging 0.41 cards per game.
In the Europa League, Bentancur, who was booked away from home during the last round, has picked up four yellows this season, averaging 0.46 per 90 minutes. In other words, value hunters should be all over odds of +275.
