2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup: Stars & Stripes Set for Another Final Date With El Tri?
by Bradley Gibbs | by Tyler Doty
Semi-final draw favors the big dogs
Back at the start of the tournament, it was Mexico and the US that topped the outright betting, so it’s no surprise to see both of those teams through to the final four, and thanks to something of a fortunate tournament draw, the pair have avoided each other thus far, meaning that the possibility of a blockbuster final between the two most successful nations in Gold Cup history is very real.
Before we go any further, here’s confirmation of the 2025 CONCACAF semi finals:
USA vs Guatemala (Wednesday, 19:00 EST)
Mexico vs Honduras (Wednesday, 22:00 EST)
At things stand, the stage looks set for what will be a huge final between the US and Mexico, though that eventuality isn’t quite a foregone conclusion. After all, upsets aren’t out of the question. Just ask the Canadians.
Is there any hope for the underdogs?
What we have is a situation where we have two semi finals and two red-hot favorites, so much so that we’re forced to ask whether there is any hope at all for both Guatemala and Honduras?
Let’s start with the first game. A quick glance at the early betting shows us that Mauricio Pochettino’s men are expected to do nothing other than pass this test with flying colors, but then again, so were the Canadians, and we know what the pressure did to them.
It’s also worth noting that the pressure was very nearly too much for the Stars and Stripes to handle against Costa Rica, who pushed the US all the way to penalties in the quarter-finals. Can the Guatemalans do the same? In all honesty, probably not, but there’s nothing for the minnows to lose, so at the very least, they can play with freedom and see what happens. In contrast, the tournament hosts will need to shoulder the pressure and be bang on it to avoid slipping on this particular banana skin.
Can Honduras do what they’ve not done since the early 1990’s and reach the final of the CONCACAF Gold Cup? Well, they’ve already improved on recent showings, reaching the final four for the first time since 2013, and after they got the better of what was clearly a strong Panama team, Reinaldo Rueda’s men may fancy themselves to upset the defending champions.
As is the case with the US in the other semi final, the pressure is all on the Mexicans, who are absolutely expected (by the early market) to come out on top in Santa Clara, California, where they will begin the match at Levi’s Stadium as red-hot favorites.
Confirming favoritism is something that this Mexican team does well, let’s be honest. However, El Tri did come unstuck in this very fixture less than a year ago, with Honduras winning by two goals to zero in their own backyard. Of course, the Mexicans returned the favour shortly after by thumping Rueda’s team 4-0 in Toluca, and if either of those efforts are to be repeated, the latter looks the most likely. Let’s see what happens.
Three players to watch out for in the semi finals
Lots of players set to be involved in the next two games at the Gold Cup have the ability to shine, but I've singled out three to keep an eye on, players that may just be capable of turning the tide for their teams.
Rubio Rubin (Guatemala)
Listen, the Guatemalans are up against it here. Sure, they made it beyond Canada, but this challenge is much harder, so don’t be too surprised if they falter. If they are to stand any chance of progressing, then Rubio Rubin will need to get the service his offensive ability warrants.
The forward scored a crucial goal against the Canadians last time out, showing his ability to produce the goods on the biggest stage, while he was also instrumental in the defeat of Guadeloupe, scoring and assisting. The scorer of five goals in his last eight for Guatemala, Rubin will certainly be key to any further success that his nation enjoys.
Max Arfsten (USA)
I highlighted Malik Tillman as a key player for the US before the tournament, and the PSV man has certainly impressed, though no more than Max Arfsten, who has taken full advantage of the opportunity given to him by Mauricio Pochettino.
The Columbus Crew player has been the USA’s key creator at this tournament, providing three assists, while he came up with a big goal in the quarter finals too. Arfsten’s ability to create from wide areas will be key to the US getting over the line on Wednesday evening.
Alexis Vega (Mexico)
Enigmatic and far from consistent, there can be no doubt about the quality that Alexis Vega brings to the Mexico team. His ability as both a creator and a scorer of goals is hard to match at this tournament, with the playmaker scoring and assisting no less than 29 goals in his last 42 appearances for Toluca, while he has a goal and an assist to his name in his last three at the Gold Cup. The 27-year-old can definitely make the difference for El Tri in California.
Looking for extra Gold Cup content, including previews, stats and recommended bets ahead of the semi finals? Check out our Gold Cup picks section.
