Avoiding the Gambler's Fallacy

While sports betting is filled with excitement and the appeal of big wins, there is a psychological notion that traps both casual and seasoned bettors: the gambler’s fallacy. This common cognitive bias leads gamblers to believe that a losing team is ‘due’ for a win or vice versa. Understanding this misconception will not only help you manage your bankroll wisely but also improve your long-term betting strategies.

Our guide explains what the gambler’s fallacy is, how it applies to sports betting, and how to avoid it. So, stick with us to the end!

❓What is the Gambler's Fallacy?
🏈How it applies to sports betting.
🔍Why you need to be careful.
✍️Our Tips

What is the Gambler's Fallacy?

Put simply, the gambler’s fallacy is when bettors believe future results are influenced by past random outcomes. Essentially, it’s the classic idea that you would expect a reversal in luck after an extended run of one outcome. This isn’t necessarily true, as past and future probabilities are independent. Just because a team is on a losing streak, a win isn’t guaranteed in the next match.

Why do so many people fall for the gambler’s fallacy? Naturally, our brains are wired to find and see patterns as this plays a big role in our everyday survival, i.e, predicting outcomes and making decisions. However, in random set-ups such as roulette table spins and single-game outcomes, in sporting events, past outcomes don’t influence future probabilities.

That said, be sure to treat each event as independent, unless there are relevant contributing factors, such as injuries, weather, and tactical changes, which can genuinely impact the odds in sports.

Get started with FanDuel

How Does the Gambler’s Fallacy Apply to Sports Betting?

Now that you understand what the gambler’s fallacy or ‘The Monte Carlo Fallacy’ is, let’s see how it applies to sports betting. Remember that sporting events are different from roulette games as outcomes can be hinged on player skills, strategies, and team tactics instead of pure chance. The fallacy comes in when bettors combine streaks with probability. Below are a few examples:

Totals (over/under): Let’s say the under hits several times in a few NFL games. Some bettors may be convinced that hitting the over is more likely next time, not knowing that totals are influenced by efficiency, weather, and defense, rather than streaks.
Losing streaks: Take the Charlotte Hornets, for example, they’ve lost seven games consecutively. You might be tempted to think they’re due for a win. In reality, the probability of winning truly depends on the current matchup, and not the losing streak.
Players’ performance: Another example would be a baseball hitter in a slump. As opposed to what the fallacy presumes, their next at-bat is influenced by the ballpark, the pitcher, and the player's mechanics. Not the length of his unlucky streak.

The examples we’ve highlighted above show how risky the gambler’s fallacy can be, especially on your bankroll, when it substitutes data-driven analysis.

Why You Need to Avoid the Gambler’s Fallacy in Sports Betting

The Monte Carlo Fallacy distorts your decision-making in sports betting. It also greatly contributes to problem gambling. Therefore, identifying the dangers is the first step toward avoiding this misconception:

Chasing losses: It’s a commonly mistaken belief that a win is ‘due’ after a series of losses, leading bettors to increase their stakes. This will eat up your bankroll pretty quickly.
Overconfidence in streak reversals: This can be a problem where bettors wager on weaker teams merely because they’re due for a win, ignoring essential data.
Ignoring real odds: When you focus on past streaks, you’ll ultimately ignore fundamental stats such as injuries, efficiency rating, and Expected Goals (xG)
Emotional betting: The gambler’s fallacy feeds off your frustration and hope, pulling you away from rational and disciplined betting.

How Can You Avoid the Gambler’s Fallacy in Betting?

You must always bet responsibly, with discipline, and base your wagers on data-driven insight. Below, we’ve highlighted several strategies to help you avoid this false notion:

Focus on Current Statistics

You need to look at factors influencing the games, such as rest days, injuries, weather, and pace, as well as advanced stats like xG in soccer or net rating in basketball. Ask yourself questions like how do the teams match up tactically? What do the stats say about the current form?

For example, if Manchester United has lost five times consecutively, but the Expected Goals (xG) and possession are better than their opponents, the losing streak would be more of bad luck than probability.

Manage Your Bankroll Wisely

You must be disciplined in betting. Do not blindly increase your stakes; instead, bet a small consistent percentage of your bankroll, preferably (1-2%). You must also accept variance as part of sports betting.

Think Probabilities, not Certainties

You must understand that betting is all about expected value (EV), where you find wagers with better odds than the true probability. For example, if a bookmaker sets the odds at +200 with 33% implied probability, but your analysis shows a 40% chance, then that’s a positive expected value. Put simply, it means that your bet has a higher chance of hitting than the odds imply.

Filter True Trends from Random Noise

Keep in mind that not all patterns are senseless; the trick is to distinguish random streaks from true trends. You must find a logical and evidence-based reason why a certain pattern occurs. For instance, a true trend would be a football team struggling to defend after key players are injured. A random streak would be a hockey team winning four or five times in a row, regardless of being outshot in every single game.

Change the “Due” Mindset

To avoid the gambler’s fallacy in sports betting, you must change your mindset to take on a data-driven approach. Are the odds given by the bookie offering positive expected value (+EV)? What are the current probabilities of winning? With this shift in outlook, you can place bets rationally and with discipline.

Conclusion

As we’ve seen in our guide, the gambler’s fallacy is a common and very costly mistake in sports betting. It leads bettors to make poor betting decisions, where they chase losses and ignore data-driven insight.

By treating each game as an independent event, managing your bankroll, and focusing on data analysis, you can avoid falling into this trap. Lastly, avoiding this fallacy will not guarantee wins, but it’s one of the foundations of smart, long-term, profitable betting.