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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins are set to wrap up their three-game series today, with both teams looking to take the decisive rubber match. For the Padres, this game is another important opportunity to solidify their playoff hopes in a tightly contested National League race. Sitting at 55-46, San Diego trails the Los Angeles Dodgers by four games in the N.L. West and currently clings to the final Wild Card spot, holding a 2.5-game cushion over the next closest competitor.
It hasn’t been the smoothest ride for the Friars this season, but they've shown enough resilience to stay in contention. Tuesday’s narrow 4-3 loss to the Marlins was a tough one, especially considering a solid effort from starter Stephen Kolek, who surrendered three earned runs over 5.2 innings.
Miami, meanwhile, continues to play with the kind of scrappy energy that has defined their season. After a dismal 25-41 start, the Marlins have gone 22-12 over their last 34 games. They still sit below .500 at 47-53 and remain well behind in both the division and wild card standings, but the turnaround speaks to the team’s improved form and fight.
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San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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10
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0.534 | 103 | 55 | 48 |
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23
|
0.475 | 101 | 48 | 53 |
San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins Latest Matches
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San Diego Padres against Miami Marlins : Head to Head (H2H)
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San Diego Padres - Miami Marlins Key Points
- The Padres are 10-0 in last 10 games as favorites after a loss
- The Marlins are 0-8 in their last 8 home games vs. NL teams after a win
- The Padres are 11-0 covering the run line in their last 11 day games vs. NL teams after a loss
- The Marlins are 0-12 covering the run line in their last 12 day games vs. NL West teams after a home win
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Our San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Prediction
The San Diego bullpen couldn’t hold off Miami’s late push, but San Diego will now turn to one of their more experienced arms in Dylan Cease for the series finale. Cease has had a rocky 2024 campaign, entering his 21st start with a 3-9 record and a 4.64 ERA. Despite the losing record, he remains one of the team’s top strikeout pitchers, racking up 139 Ks to go with 39 walks.
His most recent outing was encouraging—he pitched 5.1 scoreless innings and fanned 10 batters in a win against the Nationals. If Cease can repeat that performance, the Padres will be in strong position to close out the series on a high note.
Sandy Alcantara will be on the mound for Miami. The 29-year-old right-hander leads the Marlins in innings pitched but has struggled mightily this season, compiling a 4-9 record and an alarming 7.14 ERA. In his last outing, he allowed four earned runs over six innings in a win over Kansas City. He’ll need to show better command today if Miami hopes to secure the series victory.
With both teams eager for a win, the matchup hinges heavily on the starting pitching. Given Alcantara’s struggles and Cease’s recent uptick in performance, the edge goes to San Diego. The Padres have the more potent lineup, the more reliable pitcher, and the greater playoff urgency. Expect them to take this one before heading back to Petco Park. Our prediction for Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres: Padres to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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