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by Erik Gibbs | in MLB Picks
The San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks wrap up their three-game series Wednesday at Chase Field, and this rubber match carries serious postseason implications. San Diego, holding a narrow edge in the National League Wild Card race, is in must-win mode down the stretch. Arizona, while not mathematically eliminated, has little margin for error and needs to turn things around quickly if it hopes to stay in the mix.
The Padres (63-51, 27-32 on the road) have picked up some key momentum in recent weeks, riding series wins over the New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals into this divisional battle. After dropping the opener to Arizona, they bounced back convincingly with a 10-5 win on Tuesday. That offensive outburst was a welcome sign, especially with slugger Fernando Tatís Jr. continuing to find his form and Manny Machado contributing clutch hits. As a team, San Diego has looked sharper at the plate and more disciplined on the mound, traits they’ll need to maintain through August.
The Diamondbacks (54-60, 27-29 at home) are coming off a rough stretch, losing series to both Pittsburgh and Detroit, though they showed signs of life in a bounce-back win against Oakland prior to this Padres series. Their inconsistency has been a problem all season—flashes of talent frequently undone by bullpen struggles and cold bats. That said, Arizona has historically had San Diego’s number, winning six of their last ten head-to-head matchups, and they hold a narrow 5-4 series lead over the Padres in 2025.
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San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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7
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0.559 | 118 | 66 | 52 |
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19
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0.483 | 118 | 57 | 61 |
San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
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5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
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San Diego Padres against Arizona Diamondbacks : Head to Head (H2H)
50 %
50 %
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San Diego Padres - Arizona Diamondbacks Key Points
- The Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 night games after going to extra innings
- The Padres are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games after going to extra innings
- The Padres are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games
- The Diamondbacks are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. NL teams after going to extra innings
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Our San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction
Arizona will hand the ball to veteran right-hander Anthony DeSclafani on Wednesday. Though he’s primarily pitched out of the bullpen, DeSclafani has been pressed into starting duty. Through two starts, he’s 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.29 WHIP across 25.2 innings. While his numbers don’t jump off the page, he’s capable of keeping games close early—but likely won’t go deep into the outing, which puts pressure on the Diamondbacks’ bullpen to carry the load.
San Diego counters with lefty Nestor Cortes, making his first start for the Padres after being acquired from the Brewers. Cortes is coming off a lengthy IL stint, but if healthy, he brings experience and deceptive pitching that can frustrate Arizona’s lineup. While his small 2025 sample (1-1, 9.00 ERA, 1.75 WHIP in 8 innings) isn’t encouraging, that was before his recent rehab work. The Padres are banking on him returning to his 2022–2023 form, when he was one of the more reliable arms in the AL.
Given Arizona’s recent slide and uncertainty surrounding their pitching depth, San Diego may have a real opportunity here. The Padres’ offense is clicking at the right time, and with Cortes making his much-anticipated debut in a San Diego uniform, there’s a spark of motivation on their side. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks' reliance on a short outing from DeSclafani and an inconsistent bullpen is a dangerous formula against a team fighting for postseason relevance.
While the D-backs are at home and have done well historically against the Padres, current momentum favors San Diego. If Cortes can limit early damage and the Padres bats stay hot, they have the tools to capitalize on Arizona’s vulnerabilities—particularly in the middle innings. Expect San Diego to come out aggressive, trying to get to DeSclafani early before the Arizona bullpen gets involved. Our prediction for Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres: Padres to win.
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