Netherlands vs Japan Prediction & Picks - World Cup
World - World Cup
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by Mikaella McIntosh | in World Cup Picks
Netherlands and Japan meet in southern USA to kickstart Group F action on day four of the competition. With this being the hardest game of the group stage for both teams, it may not be as simple as either would like.
The Japanese have a solid squad, well settled with good continuity, having the same manager for eight years as well as players that have performed well at league level in the recent season. Samurai Blue have reached the knockout stage in both of the last two World Cups, and an improvement on this will surely be in their sights, which they have never done before.
The Oranje haven’t impressed of late, only scoring their two goals from the penalty spot in their final warm-up fixture, against a much weaker side, likewise failing to net in their penultimate. We aren’t witnessing as strong a Netherlands side that we’ve been used to in previous tournaments, and this won’t be made easy against a disciplined team like Japan.
There are many reasons as to why this game could be a low-scorer, so much so that Under 2.5 Goals looks like a good bet at odds of -111.
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Netherlands vs Japan Form
Netherlands and Japan Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
2/6 (33%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 8, 2026 - International Friendlies
Jun 3, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 27, 2026 - International Friendlies
Nov 17, 2025 - World Cup
Nov 14, 2025 - World Cup
4/6 (67%)
1/6 (17%)
1/6 (17%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Jun 8, 2026 - International Friendlies
Jun 3, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 27, 2026 - International Friendlies
Nov 17, 2025 - World Cup
Oct 12, 2025 - World Cup
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Nov 14, 2025 - World Cup
Oct 9, 2025 - World Cup
Sep 7, 2025 - World Cup
Jun 7, 2025 - World Cup
Mar 23, 2025 - UEFA Nations League
Nov 19, 2024 - UEFA Nations League
6/6 (100%)
0/6 (0%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 28, 2026 - International Friendlies
Nov 18, 2025 - International Friendlies
Nov 14, 2025 - International Friendlies
Oct 14, 2025 - International Friendlies
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
0/6 (0%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
May 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Nov 18, 2025 - International Friendlies
Nov 14, 2025 - International Friendlies
Oct 14, 2025 - International Friendlies
Oct 10, 2025 - International Friendlies
Jul 12, 2025 - East Asian Championship
3/6 (50%)
1/6 (17%)
2/6 (33%)
Average stats (Last 6 matchs)
Mar 31, 2026 - International Friendlies
Mar 28, 2026 - International Friendlies
Sep 9, 2025 - International Friendlies
Sep 6, 2025 - International Friendlies
Jul 15, 2025 - East Asian Championship
Jun 5, 2025 - World Cup
Netherlands - Japan: Form Analysis
Playing double the number of qualifying matches as their opposition didn’t seem to faze Japan, winning 13 out of a total 16, conceding an impressive three goals combined, proving that Samurai Blue aren’t an easy opposition to conquer. This is further demonstrated in three clear-cut friendlies since March, winning each meeting by an uncomplicated 1-0. The Japanese looked sturdy when facing The Three Lions on English soil.
The Japanese looked sturdy when facing The Three Lions on English soil.
The Netherlands too didn’t seem to find the qualifying round too strenuous, going eight games without a defeat, but the same can’t quite be ascribed to their pre-tournament friendlies. Koeman’s crew conceded in all four matches whilst failing to net in one, resulting in one tie and one loss, creating a measly two shots against similarly-ranked Ecuador. This inaugural meeting will be their toughest yet.
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Missing players
B. Verbruggen
Netherlands & Japan Squad Analysis
The Oranje’s forwards likely won’t be too pleased with their preparation time for this huge occasion. The main striker called up by Koeman in this period was Donyell Malen who, honestly, didn’t impress in the warm-ups, failing to score despite his lucrative season at Roma. Regardless, he’s looking the most likely to be leading the Netherlands, as teammate Depay has spent large periods out with injury in 2026 and only played a total 45 minutes in their four warm-up games. Cody Gakpo’s only two goals ahead of the main stage came from the penalty spot, but he is still expected to start.
Moriyasu changed things around a lot in the pre-tournament season, so there could be some surprise inclusions.
Scoring in their penultimate warm-up game against England, Brighton’s Kaoru Mitoma was rested last time out, but he is a big player for Samurai Blue and should start here. Veteran Maya Yoshida, who will be familiar to MLS fans, went off early due to a knock in the last warm up game, which may keep him out here. Moriyasu changed things around a lot in the pre-tournament season, so there could be some surprise inclusions.
Netherlands - Japan Key Points
- 52% of the games from the past two World Cup competitions have concluded with under 2.5 goals.
- Japan have kept a clean sheet in all of their last five consecutive matches.
- The Japanese are well structured and very disciplined defensively.
- All of Japan’s three warm-up meetings were low-scoring.
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Our Netherlands vs Japan Prediction
Moriyasu’s men are as good at the back as they’ve ever been, and they’ve built fantastic momentum running into this game, winning six out of six, two against top-ten Brazil and England, which bodes well in a game against Netherlands. Japan’s defensive approach and discipline is where Samurai Blue excel. They don’t look to play very open football, focusing on strong organization and ball retention.
Such an approach will be difficult for Clockwork Orange to break down, especially as their performances recently haven’t been extremely convincing as it is. Only one goal in their last three pre-tournament fixtures has come from open play, being gifted two penalties in their last outings.
Both may find this a difficult game to navigate, whereas they’ll know that the other two group games should be much more achievable in terms of grabbing enough points to advance to the knock-outs. Thus, don’t be surprised if both are happy to use this opening game to slowly settle into the competition.
Our Netherlands vs Japan Pick: Under 2.5 Goals.
Netherlands vs Japan - Other Interesting Picks
Tie
The Oranje have only won one in their last three friendlies, so they may be surprised when they’re confronted with an under-the-radar Japanese team, one that is very systematic and strong defensively. Being the opening round, neither team will want to do anything silly, whilst they’re probably both content with a point in their toughest game of the group stage. We should see a more evenly matched than the early odds make out.
Netherlands vs Japan match : Frequently asked questions
Netherlands and Japan will meet for their first group game at AT&T Stadium in Texas.
All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
