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by Lou Aguila in ATP Toronto Picks
Alex Michelsen of the United States will vie for a spot in the fourth round of the 2025 Canadian Open as he tussles with Lorenzo Musetti of Italy on Thursday.
Michelsen booked his first win in the North American hard-court season after topping Tomas Barrios Vera of Chile 7-6(7) 6-3. Coming off a first-round exit in Washington, Michelsen barely passed another litmus test against Vera in the first set before stringing it all together to dispatch the resilient Chilean in two sets. Michelsen posted 27 first-serve points and 13 aces, but the deciding factor of the match was the four breakpoints he captured to pull away from Vera.
Musetti looked good in his first game since crashing out in the first round of the 2025 Wimbledon Open. The 2025 French Open semifinalist cruised to a 7-5 6-1 over James Duckworth of Australia. Musetti’s services dealt a lot of damage in this match, winning 90 percent of his first serves and adding 15 more points off the second serves to prevent Duckworth from securing a break.
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Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Form
Lorenzo Musetti and Alex Michelsen Latest Matches
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Jul 29, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 22, 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
Jul 1, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jun 6, 2025 - ATP French Open
Jun 3, 2025 - ATP French Open
Jun 1, 2025 - ATP French Open
3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Jul 29, 2025 - ATP Toronto
Jul 22, 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
Jul 1, 2025 - ATP Wimbledon Championships
Jun 27, 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open
Jun 26, 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open
Jun 25, 2025 - ATP Mallorca Open
Lorenzo Musetti - Alex Michelsen Key Points
- Lorenzo Musetti defeated James Duckworth 7-5, 6-1 in the second round of the 2025 Canadian Open.
- Lorenzo Musetti is 7-5 on the hard court in 2025.
- Alex Michelsen defeated Tomas Barrios Vera 7-6(7) 6-3 in the second round of the 2025 Canadian Open.
- Alex Michelsen is 11-8 on the hard court in 2025.
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Our Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex Michelsen Prediction
I am backing Alex Michelsen to upset Lorenzo Musetti in this third-round clash. Michelsen, who owns a respectable 63 percent win rate on hard courts, has a better hard court record this year (11-8) than the 7-5 slate Musetti has compiled.
Everybody knows that the Italian is an absolute beast on clay. It’s a different story on the hard court, where he’s only 57-51 in his career. Musetti is undoubtedly capable of staging a deep campaign in hard-court tournaments. The only problem is that his history tells that he has been more vulnerable to losing in the early rounds in hard-court tournaments than in clay-court events. On the other hand, Michelsen is a hard-court expert whose best finishes took place on concrete.
Our betting prediction for Alex Michelsen vs. Lorenzo Musetti: Alex Michelsen will win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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