Deportivo Toluca FC vs New York City Prediction & Picks - Leagues Cup

Prediction published on 8/5/25, 3:59 PM  by Erik Gibbs in Leagues Cup Picks

Toluca are set to face New York City FC at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday in a decisive final group stage match of the 2025 Leagues Cup. With the stakes sky-high, both sides will be battling not just for bragging rights but also for a potential berth in the knockout rounds. For Toluca, a win in regulation time could very well secure them a spot in the quarterfinals. For NYCFC, the path is less straightforward. They’ll need a victory with an emphatic scoreline and favorable results elsewhere to keep their tournament hopes alive.

The reigning Liga MX champions come into this clash with considerable momentum. Toluca kicked off their Leagues Cup campaign with a thrilling 2-2 draw against Columbus Crew, snatching a bonus point by winning the penalty shootout.

They followed that up with a spirited 2-1 comeback win over CF Montreal, highlighting their resilience and attacking depth. Now with five points already in the bank, another three from a regulation win would all but guarantee progression and possibly even a favorable seeding for the knockout rounds.

Statistically, Toluca hold a commanding record in the Leagues Cup, especially against MLS opposition. They remain unbeaten in group stage play since the format was introduced in 2023 and have scored multiple goals in every group encounter so far.

Of their five normal-time wins in this phase, all came when they opened the scoring in the first half—something they’ll be keen to replicate against NYCFC. Furthermore, the Diablos Rojos boast a formidable 7-2-0 record against MLS teams in this competition and will look to extend that unbeaten streak on Tuesday.

On the other side, New York City FC are facing an uphill battle. They began their campaign with a disappointing 3-0 defeat to Club Puebla, a match in which they failed to convert several good opportunities. However, they rebounded with a 2-0 victory over Club Leon in their second game, keeping their faint hopes of qualification alive. Currently sitting 13th in the MLS standings, NYCFC's inconsistency remains a concern, though home-field advantage at Yankee Stadium could give them a needed edge.