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by Erik Gibbs in MLB Picks
The Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians open a four-game series tonight at Progressive Field, with both clubs seeking momentum as they navigate the second half of the MLB season. Baltimore enters the contest with a 44-54 record, having dropped two of three games to the Tampa Bay Rays in their recent series.
The Orioles were finally able to halt a four-game skid with a win on Sunday. However, their struggles have left them 13.5 games behind the AL East leaders and firmly in last place in the division.
Cleveland, meanwhile, holds a 48-50 record and sits in the middle of the AL Central standings. While they’ve had difficulty defending their home turf with an underwhelming 22-24 home record, including eight losses in their last nine games at Progressive Field, they’ve recently turned a corner, winning eight of their last ten games overall. That hot streak has kept them within striking distance in the division, where the race remains relatively tight compared to the rest of the league.
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Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Form
Table
| Teams | % | P | W | L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
20
|
0.49 | 98 | 48 | 50 |
|
24
|
0.449 | 98 | 44 | 54 |
Baltimore Orioles and Cleveland Guardians Latest Matches
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Jul 20, 2025 - MLB
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3/6 (50%)
3/6 (50%)
Jul 13, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 10, 2025 - MLB
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jul 20, 2025 - MLB
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4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Jul 20, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 11, 2025 - MLB
2/6 (33%)
4/6 (67%)
Jul 20, 2025 - MLB
Jul 19, 2025 - MLB
Jul 18, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 4, 2025 - MLB
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Jul 13, 2025 - MLB
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Jul 8, 2025 - MLB
Baltimore Orioles against Cleveland Guardians : Head to Head (H2H)
67 %
33 %
Apr 17, 2025 - MLB
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Aug 4, 2024 - MLB
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Baltimore Orioles - Cleveland Guardians Key Points
- The Guardians are 1-5 in their last 6 games as home favorites after a home win
- The Orioles are 3-1 in their last 4 games as underdogs after playing the previous day
- The Orioles are 8-1 covering the run line in their last 9 games as underdogs vs. AL Central teams after a road win
- The Guardians are 1-7 covering the run line in their last 8 games vs. AL East teams after a home win
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Our Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction
The Orioles will send Tomoyuki Sugano to the mound. The Japanese right-hander has endured a rocky stretch, giving up 16 earned runs across his last three starts. Command and consistency have been issues for Sugano, who has struggled to adjust fully to major league hitters.
On the other side, the Guardians counter with Tanner Bibee. While Bibee has had flashes of solid form this season, he’s also surrendered at least four earned runs in three of his last five appearances, suggesting that this game could turn into an offensive showdown.
Despite Cleveland’s better overall record and recent form, their troubles at home may provide an opening for Baltimore to build some momentum. While the Orioles have also struggled on the road, going 22-29 away from Camden Yards, their offense has shown signs of life and could take advantage of Bibee's inconsistency. If Sugano can limit early damage and the O’s bullpen holds up, Baltimore may be in position to steal the series opener.
Given both pitchers’ recent performances, this game is likely to be high-scoring. While Cleveland is the hotter team on paper, the Orioles could surprise, especially if their offense gets going early. Don’t be shocked if Baltimore emerges with a win to kick off this important AL clash. Our prediction for Cleveland Guardians vs. Baltimore Orioles: Orioles to win.
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All tips are fully researched and given in good faith, but profits cannot be guaranteed.
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