ATP - Almaty Open
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by Lou Aguila | in Tennis Picks
Daniil Medvedev of Russia gets a shot at his first ATP title of 2025 as he goes up against Corentin Moutet of France in the championship match of the 2025 Almaty Open on Sunday.
Unsurprisingly, Medvedev opened as the heavy favorite at -300. The +230 underdog Moutet is coming with a lot of momentum after sweeping his first four matches in Almaty.
Current Form:
After two semifinal appearances in Beijing and Shanghai, Medvedev finally earned a spot in the championship match of the Almaty Open after outlasting James Duckworth 6-7, 6-3, 6-2. The former world’s No.1 bombarded Duckworth with 15 aces and 47 points behind the first ball to hold all 15 service games. He also broke the Aussie three times behind 39 return points. Medvedev improved to 6-2 in indoor matches in 2025.
Moutet advanced to his third final on the ATP main tour following a 7-6, 6-4 win over Alex Michelsen of the United States in the semifinal. The French outgunned Michelsen by winning 41 points behind the first ball and picking up four breakpoint conversions. Moutet will enter the championship match looking to complete a perfect run after breezing through the first four rounds without dropping a set.
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Corentin Moutet vs Daniil Medvedev Form
Corentin Moutet and Daniil Medvedev Latest Matches
4/6 (67%)
2/6 (33%)
Oct 18, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 17, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 15, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 13, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 4, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Sep 28, 2025 - ATP Beijing Open
5/6 (83%)
1/6 (17%)
Oct 18, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 17, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 16, 2025 - Almaty Open
Oct 11, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 10, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Oct 8, 2025 - ATP Shanghai Masters
Corentin Moutet against Daniil Medvedev : Head to Head (H2H)
Jul 25, 2025 - ATP Washington Citi Open
Corentin Moutet - Daniil Medvedev Key Points
- Corentin Moutet defeated Alex Michelsen 7-6, 6-4 in the semifinal of the 2025 Almaty Open.
- Corentin Moutet has yet to drop a set at the 2025 Almaty Open.
- Daniil Medvedev has a 56.5 percent win rate in championship matches.
- Daniil Medvedev defeated James Duckworth 6-7, 6-3, 6-2 in the semifinal of the 2025 Almaty Open.
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Our Corentin Moutet vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction
Fearless Forecast: Daniil Medvedev delivers his best performance of the week to blow by Corentin Moutet 6-3, 6-4. Moutet, who has held 83 percent of his serves and converted 43 percent of breakpoint chances in this tourney, might seem like a tough matchup for Medvedev in this championship battle. However, the Russian has also proven this week that he’s back playing at an elite level after holding 97 percent of his serves and converting 42 percent of his breakpoints. Moutet defeated Medvedev 1-6, 6-4, 6-4 in the quarterfinal of the 2025 Citi Open in July, but I really believe this version of Daniil Medvedev will obliterate the Frenchman once he gets into his flow.
Our betting prediction for Daniil Medvedev vs. Corentin Moutet: Daniil Medvedev -4.5 Games
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