MNF: Best Bets for Giants vs Patriots
by Tyler Doty
A lot has changed between the Patriots and the Giants since the teams last met in 2023. Both teams have new coaches and new quarterbacks. And while the Giants are still mired in a ditch, the Patriots are right back on top of the AFC, having won nine consecutive games. Meanwhile, New York has lost six in a row.
The fact that the Patriots have their bye after this game should help them avoid the trap scenario. New England has a chance to seal the AFC East by beating the Bills a second time in two weeks, which would have made this game much easier to look past. And the Giants are better than their 2-10 mark indicates. New York’s past three losses have all come by seven points or less, against potential playoff teams.
Jaxson Dart, Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Dart has been in the concussion protocol four times in eight games, and he’s missed two games after suffering a concussion against the Bears. That’s a sign of a quarterback who has to learn to stay in the pocket and read NFL defenses, understandable for a rookie.
This number is high because of Dart’s tendency to take off when he doesn’t see a read he likes. But after two games missed and extra time with team doctors, Dart likely isn’t going to want to run quite as much as he did before. If he wants to have a long career, which he almost certainly does, he has to learn to avoid getting hit. With New England offering a manageable pass defense, this is a game for Dart to start to learn to read what’s available.
Our Giants vs Patriots prediction
Tyrone Tracy Jr., Under 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Tracy is seeing a major increase in his workload. With Cam Skattebo out, the carries had to go somewhere, and Tracy is taking most of them. But teams don’t run the ball on New England. The Patriots have one of the best defenses against the run, and Tracy hasn’t yet developed into the type of big-play running back who can have a monster day with one or two touches.
Tracy is averaging under four yards per carry in three of his past five games. While he got to 62 yards last week against the Lions, he needed 20 carries to do it. The Giants likely will not give him 20 carries this week, because Dart attacking the pass defense makes too much sense. You beat New England through the air, making the run game not very viable for New York this week.
TreVeyon Henderson Over 63.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Henderson has become the top back in New England, and unlike Tracy, he has a good matchup against the Giants’ defense. Henderson gets plenty of touches, and the Patriots clearly trust him. He could be a little more consistent, but the workload and the opposition should combine to get him to the number he needs.
The Giants have the worst run defense in the NFL this season. It doesn’t matter who they face; the front seven gets shredded by the opposition’s ground game. With the Patriots clicking on all cylinders, that likely happens again here.
