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Sure Bet

You really can bet to make profit!

What exactly is a Sure bet?

When the odds shown on different sports betting websites vary significantly for the same event, you can make a certain profit whatever the result of the event. How? Quite simply by betting on all of the possible results when the following formula applies:

1/Odds 1 + 1/ Odds 2 +.... + 1/ Odds n < 1

An example of a football sure bet

Sure bet: Newcastle - Bolton Wanderers football match

The following odds are given:

BookmakersNewcastleDrawBolton
Bookmaker A1.93.14.2
Bookmaker B1.63.46

 

1/1.9 + 1/3.4 + 1/6 = 0.987 < 1

 

 

 

You can make a certain profit of 2.45 euros whatever the result of the match by betting 100 euros on Newcastle with bookmaker A, along with 55.88 euros on Bolton and 31.67 euros on a drawn match with bookmaker B:

 

 

  • Result for a Newcastle win:

 

 

Bookmaker A: Profit = 100 * (1.9-1) = 90 euros 
Bookmaker
B: Loss = 55.88 + 31.67 = 87.55 euros 
Total profit = 90 - 87.55 = 2.45 euros

 

 

 

  • Result for a draw:

 

 

 

Bookmaker A: Loss = 100 euros 
Bookmaker
B: Profit = 55.88 * (3.4-1) - 31.67 = 102.45 euros
Total profit = 102.45 - 100 = 2.45 euros

 

 

 

  • Result for a Bolton win:

 

 

 

Bookmaker A: Loss = 100 euros 
Bookmaker
B: Profit = 31.67 * (6-1) - 55.88 = 102.45 euros 
Total profit = 102.45 - 100 = 2.45 euros

 

 

An example of a tennis sure bet

Sure bet: Nadal – Federer tennis match

 

 

The following odds are given:

BookmakersNadalFederer
Bookmaker A1.72.2
Bookmaker B1.42.6

1/1.7 + 1/2.6 = 0.97 < 1

A wide range of odds are offered; you can make a certain profit by betting on Nadal with bookmaker A and Federer with bookmaker B.

By staking 100 euros on Nadal with bookmaker A at odds of 1.7 and 68 euros on Federer with bookmaker B at odds of 2.6, you can be sure of making a profit of 2 euros, whatever the outcome of the match:

  • Result in the event of an Nadal win:

Bookmaker A: Profit = 100 * (1.7-1) = 70 euros 
Bookmaker
B: Loss = 68 euros 
Total profit = 70-68 = 2 euros

  • Result in the event of a Federer win:

Bookmaker A: Loss = 100 euros 
Bookmaker
B: Profit = 68 * (2.6-1) = 102 euros 
Total profit = 102-100 = 2 euros

How do I identify a Sure bet?

The odds change so quickly and the numbers of sporting events and bookmakers are so huge that it is very difficult, if not virtually impossible, to identify a Sure bet without help.

There are various sites that offer odds comparators (free services) or e-mail alerts (subscription services) when a Sure betting opportunity becomes available.

Free odds comparison are useful tools for betting at the highest odds, if you have accounts with several sports betting sites. However, don't hold out any hope of using them to find arbitrages on sporting events: bookmakers are very quick to adjust their odds when they are mismatched!

The only services that give you a genuine chance of placing a Sure bet are the e-mail alert services. They will send you an e-mail as soon as they discover a Sure bet and can provide thousands of these alerts every day.

Sure Bet: Our tips

To justify the cost of e-mail alert services and exploit these rare opportunities, you need to:

  • Possess credited accounts with a number of bookmakers.
  • Have a fast internet connection, be on-line and perform your transactions immediately!
  • Check the maximum stakes that you can bet with each bookmaker before performing arbitrage.
  • Check the bookmakers' rules: different rules exist for certain sports, especially tennis.